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By Scott Morgan
In March and April of this year, the USIP (United States Institute of Peace) went into Nigeria to conduct an assessment into the current climate before the 2019 Presidential Elections. The results are not very welcoming to analysts.
The visit and the report which followed up came to a disheartening conclusion: there is a risk of violence taking place in the upcoming polls. The risk factors include dissension within the ruling APC ( All Progressives Congress) and the tension lying below the surface in several states like Kano, Kaduna, Plateau, Rivers, Anambra, Ekiti and Lagos. These states are the current cradles of uncertainty within the country.
Another concern is the credibility with INEC (Independent National Electoral Commission). The last polls, in 2015, which led to a peaceful transfer of power raised expectations with Nigeria that change was coming to the country. Sadly it appears these hopes are going unfounded.
After several incidents that have taken place over the three years since the change of government in Abuja - including the rampant attacks by the Fulani in the Middle Belts States and the inability to defeat the Boko Haram insurgency - have soured the Buhari Government in the eyes of those in the electorate. One can only imagine how the electorate feels about the Legislature as well.
One way that the voters could show their frustration with the authorities could result in apathy in the strongholds loyal to the ruling party while areas which support the opposition parties could have their voters turn out in droves to elicit change. The obverse to this position could result in massive amounts of voter intimidation taking place in several locations by one party to ensure their victory next year.
These are just some of the factors that will affect Nigeria as Election Day gets closer. Political Risk in Nigeria adds more instability to a region that just doesn’t need it. Insurgencies have moved across borders with relative ease and have been proven to be difficult to arrest. Arms Traffic and Human Smuggling are concerns that could get worse if there is any electoral irregularities occurring during the next electoral process in Nigeria.
So, it is imperative that the next election cycle in Nigeria avoids instances of bias, undue influence and other negative factors that could impact the next major electoral cycle in Africa. Previous cycles in other nations have been plagued with these issues. Will this actually happen is the question that will keep people up at night.
The visit and the report which followed up came to a disheartening conclusion: there is a risk of violence taking place in the upcoming polls. The risk factors include dissension within the ruling APC ( All Progressives Congress) and the tension lying below the surface in several states like Kano, Kaduna, Plateau, Rivers, Anambra, Ekiti and Lagos. These states are the current cradles of uncertainty within the country.
Another concern is the credibility with INEC (Independent National Electoral Commission). The last polls, in 2015, which led to a peaceful transfer of power raised expectations with Nigeria that change was coming to the country. Sadly it appears these hopes are going unfounded.
After several incidents that have taken place over the three years since the change of government in Abuja - including the rampant attacks by the Fulani in the Middle Belts States and the inability to defeat the Boko Haram insurgency - have soured the Buhari Government in the eyes of those in the electorate. One can only imagine how the electorate feels about the Legislature as well.
One way that the voters could show their frustration with the authorities could result in apathy in the strongholds loyal to the ruling party while areas which support the opposition parties could have their voters turn out in droves to elicit change. The obverse to this position could result in massive amounts of voter intimidation taking place in several locations by one party to ensure their victory next year.
These are just some of the factors that will affect Nigeria as Election Day gets closer. Political Risk in Nigeria adds more instability to a region that just doesn’t need it. Insurgencies have moved across borders with relative ease and have been proven to be difficult to arrest. Arms Traffic and Human Smuggling are concerns that could get worse if there is any electoral irregularities occurring during the next electoral process in Nigeria.
So, it is imperative that the next election cycle in Nigeria avoids instances of bias, undue influence and other negative factors that could impact the next major electoral cycle in Africa. Previous cycles in other nations have been plagued with these issues. Will this actually happen is the question that will keep people up at night.
(Image: Elections in Nigeria[Ed] - Google Images)
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Not following much Nigeria but my first impressions is Buhari didn't deliver much on his election campaign promises. Nigeria is yet to find a suitable leader. Goodluck Jonathan was the closest.
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