CAR & Africa: Oil Gas and Destabilising Actors

Which forces work against CAR and other African countries?

The Obama administration, since the beginning, has said that it is their intention to "eliminate our current [oil] imports from the Middle East and Venezuela within ten years" as part of its national security strategy; the reason why the US is increasing its oil imports from the African continent (whose reserves have increased by 40% in the last decade).

The United States intends to cement its relationship with Africa due to its increasing economic importance, as sub-Saharan nations discover oil and gas (e.g. Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Sierra Leone, São Tomé & Príncipe, Niger, CAR; Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique) - contributing, thus, to the "continent's increasing importance for global energy security" (David E. Brown in AFRICOM at 5 Years).

This powerful position means that the sub-Saharan Africa will become a fierce competitor of one region, that so far has been the Oil-Powerhouse: The Middle East (i.e. Arabian/Persian Gulf). Such gradual visibility is a menace to Arab and Persian nations that depend heavily on oil exports to fund state expenditure (mainly the amount of subsidies they grant their citizens, as a form of quelling revolt), weapon programmes and the worldwide dissemination of the Islamic faith. In face of having their main source of income menaced, their natural response is to destabilise their future competitor and get him out of their way.

In Central African Republic: The Islamist Assault, we said that Scott Morgan had stated that the conflict in CAR, for example, was a proxy Iranian operation; and that we would add other Islamic actors to the theatre. Arabs and Persians have studied the West. They know their prejudice regarding Africans, they know their traumas and, they are counting on the same-old western behaviour when facing an African conflict. Arabs and Persians think that if they invest enough funds, now, in destabilising Africa (along with their Russian partners) they will secure future oil exports for their respective nations.

This being said, it is not hard to visualise Iran behind the conflict in CAR (through Eritrea and Sudan), the Jihadist suicide terror attack in Niger (occurring three weeks after former-president Ahmadinejad visited the country) and behind any Hezbollah/Lebanese operation in DRC (i.e. we suspect the ADF is securing mining activities for the Sponsor State, in order to sponsor terrorist activities). Saudi Arabia and Qatar (for instance) are most probably behind conflicts in countries like Nigeria and in Chad (whose army - with the best-trained desert troops in Africa - is fighting Jihadists in Mali, Somalia; and is entering into conflicts in CAR, DR Congo and Burundi - in The Chad Jihad Threat). We are still trying to ascertain whether the recent crisis in Mozambique is related to external influence or not. Regardless of which side is sponsoring which crisis, the fact is the mentioned conflicts will easily spill over to other countries (if not contained) thus serving the interests of the nations feeling threatened by the future Oil & Gas Powerhouse: Africa.

The destabilising actors should realise that despite their efforts to impede the economic rise of the African continent, other powers will fight them for it and the African Union (AU) will eventually look at the conjuncture and connect the dots. So far, the AU has been reluctant to welcome Western entities, like AFRICOM (that will be good for business), because it fears a new colonisation period; however, this kind of reasoning is also part of the plan designed by the destabilising forces who either want to avoid being surpassed by the US, in terms of influence (in the case of France and China); or want to preclude Africa from increasing its level of economic importance (in the case of those mentioned earlier).

The AU should take advantage of the US and UK (for instance) change of policy, and behaviour, regarding Africa and aim at sustainable development of the continent, once and for all.
Ending the apparently endless cycle of violence, sponsored by competitors and leeches, is vital to get the sub-Saharan Africa to the next level.