Political Indicators for 2015

Tethys the Spy - NASA

2014 ended with a bang when the UNSC rejected PA's unilateral move (to have a state ex nihilo recognised) – bravo.
So, what can be expected this year? Some indicators point to the following:

Europe's continued decline

The European Union, unfortunately, will continue to decline since it refuses to heed the voice of the people (who, among many things, are increasingly against the Islamisation of Europe) and of those member states that call for a complete re-structure of the European project. For the moment, the EU is lost. In truth, it has been so for quite a while because not only it became megalomaniac but mainly because it has grown into this bureaucratic-socialist-style machine that forgot its original purpose: economic integration (FTA, customs Union, common market). Over the years the Union has deviated from the European forefathers' vision and overstepped political boundaries.

The European project should be re-structured and simplified (as much as it hurts those who are used to build careers at the expense of tax payers): keep the tariff-free zones and the free movement of people and goods, but obliterate redundant institutions (e.g. the European Parliament).

Territorial Justice in the ME
Historical justice in the Middle East (ME) will begin to be done. 2015 will be the year when the ME pieces will begin to be placed back into their proper place.

The Islamic State (IS) is an appalling terrorist group, notwithstanding the organisation bears a common Islamic message: Muslims, in the Arab World, want full control over their territory, under their own set of laws; and they reject the Sykes-Picot territorial design. In other words, the western interference in the ME didn't work – the different tribes want a territorial composition similar to what was before the French and the British stuck their finger in their matters. However, in order to achieve their goal, Arab nations need to realise one thing: they will have to live with a secure Israel, meaning that justice needs to be done there too – territorial claims ex nihilo (as a way to de-legitimise the Jewish State) will no longer be accepted. If they want the West out of their affairs, they must be out of Israel's as well: all it takes is political will and bravado.

US: return of the mack

The US will re-emerge as the world's leading power. It's economy is growing (in fact, it's the only top tier country whose economy is moving upwards, having grown 5% in the third quarter of 2014), employment rates are going up, it is now energy-independent; for the first time in 40 years it will start exporting oil («The United States, now officially the world's largest oil producer, will, for the first time since 1975, allow the export of “made in USA” oil.») and it will begin to move away from Arab nations, towards new fruitful ventures in Asia and Africa.

India & Japan: Asian Power-houses

India and Japan will give the first steps to deepen their relationship, in order to regain a leading position in Asia. This won't be an easy step for, as Rohan Mukherjee and Anthony Yakazi wrote, “Beijing keeps a close eye on evolving India-Japan ties and aims in the long term to prevent an excessively warm embrace between two of its rivals.” since the Red Dragon knows that once the ties between these two strong, democratic and free countries deepen they are in a much better position to challenge China's role in the world.

“Both countries have an interest in countering China’s rise without provoking conflict or any form of escalation.” - this year, Cristina Giancchini (as of now, our editor-in-chief) will share with us how, in her opinion, India managed to rise to power without challenging China to the point of conflict. If Japan-India relations indeed intensify – as we think they will - the two countries will rise as regional leaders and world power-houses.

Final Notes

We have a more pragmatic view of Russia's activities: last year it forced the EU to expose its political & military vulnerabilities (i.e. their hands were tied) and, as per the indicators, its tacit deal with the US will start to pay off. The Islamic problem must be dealt with.

2015 will also mark the year where the academic and political universe will be confronted with the reality of the need for two things: 1- a new economic model (since the old ones don't explain current phenomena), 2- new indicators of power (as we have seen: population, GDP, contributions to UN Peacekeeping missions and number of signed treaties are not suitable reflections of power).

This year, we will see elections taking place in the UK, Israel, Portugal, Canada, Spain, Greece, Nigeria, Tanzania, Trinidad & Tobago, Argentina (see more here) – these are important elections because they represent, for instance, the difference between the continuation of fiscal discipline and going back to fiscal anarchy; the severance from the EU and a permanence in it; the difference between a secure Jewish State and indefensible borders (i.e. its demise); the security of Africa and the Islamist take-over; and, finally, the difference between a new Latin America and an obsolete Latin America.

This will be, indubitably, a very interesting year; and we invite you to experience it in our company.
2015 is here: let's get cracking.