What Scenarios May Emerge if Hezbollah Takes Hold of Lebanon?

Last Sunday, Lebanon went to the polls, for the first time in nine years. Hezbollah and allies are expected to increase their representation in the 128-seat parliament. Changes have been made: expats have been allowed to vote for the first time, the voting system has been altered (to proportional representation) and it reduced the number of districts. These changes are said to favour Hezbollah (a Hybrid Terrorist Group). What interesting scenarios may we have if the Party of Allah increases its power in Lebanon, and nothing is done to stop it?

Scenario A

Hezbollah takes over Lebanon. A Terrorist Group takes hold of a Nation – empowering thus other terrorist groups who will believe that it is worthwhile being patient enough to reach their goals through Terror, mainly if they ally themselves with a proper Sponsor State.

The Party of Allah will take its new position to re-shape the Lebanese Political arena: it will gradually undermine Saad Hariri’s position; it will slowly transform Lebanon into a Theocracy, with Iran calling the shots; it will eventually shun Christians from Parliament (if not from the country, though knowing Hezbollah they will want to keep some prominent Christians back home so they can blackmail and extort from Lebanese Christians abroad); and it will declare war against Israel, given its broader access to the Lebanese Military and Security Forces.

Can you imagine Hezbollah having access to the Lebanese Air Force Inventory? It is admittedly a humble one; nevertheless it can do a lot of damage if used skilfully. Such scenario is unacceptable to Israel and, therefore, when the war breaks out one of the first things that should be hit is the meagre Lebanese Air Fleet.

Scenario B

Hezbollah makes an alliance with Saad Hariri and takes hold of Lebanon’s designs. Saad Hariri, a Sunni, will be held hostage to Iran’s political agenda and Lebanon will be another card added to the Ayatollahs’ Middle East deck: Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen…who will be next, Jordan?

The Iranians have already shown us that it doesn’t limit itself to sectarian lines: it works very well with Sunnis when it suits them (Hamas, Fatah, Al-Qaeda, Khorasan, ISIS and Recep Erdogan). Therefore, if needed be Iran will empower the Muslim Brotherhood to destabilise Jordan, drive it into chaos to slowly depose the King and establish another Theocracy in the region. Remember that Jordan is a vital US interest, and President Rouhani has already threatened the United States with severe retaliation in case of any disturbance to the Iran Deal. But if Iran attacks any of the American interests in the ME, we advise the Trump Administration to unleash the Lion of Zion and solve the problem once and for all.

Scenario C

Hezbollah convinces the Lebanese Parliament that Israel is interfering with its internal affairs and that the threat must be quelled once and for all – here we recognise the European Signature of blaming the Jews for everything that goes wrong in their countries – and so they will drag Lebanon into a war that will certainly bring utter destruction and an absolute shift in how the Political Game is played in the Middle East.

This is not 2006. In 2018, 12 years later, Israel will not accept to be attacked by Iranian proxies (be it Hamas, the Islamic Jihad, the PLO or Hezbollah) and worry about the Media. The world has been warned: if the UN cannot do its job and the EU continues to sponsor the attempted slaughter of Jews and Israeli citizens, both in the Land of Israel and abroad, then the Jewish State may have to improvise, adapt and overcome for good.

Impending War

Any scenario will lead to war – with the compliments of the European Union who enabled the Iranians and the several Terrorist Groups in the Middle East. But the Europeans are not alone: the Latin Americans and the Africans (the same who desperately seek a UN Security Council Reform to step in and control the world’s designs) also aided and abetted Iran, Hezbollah, the PLO, Al-Qaeda, Al-Shabaab, Boko Haram and the rest of the Jihadist lot. Look at countries like Brazil that are engulfed by fire and violence ever since Left Wing parties took over Government – has anyone even bothered to look into the promiscuous relationship between former President Lula and Iran?

War is coming. But which sort of War are we talking about? That will depend on the steps that the International Community will take:

• Will it continue to allow groups like Hezbollah to own Banks and front businesses that launder money and help to circumvent sanctions? 
• Will it allow Hezbollah, a Terror Group, to take hold of Lebanon? 
• Will it proceed with its ambiguity (by differentiating between Hezbollah the Military Wing and Hezbollah the Political Wing, when there’s really no difference at all)? 
• Or will it do the right thing for once?

War has many faces and there are ways of waging it without causing absolute destruction. However, most of the times destruction brings construction and if the world pushes certain world powers to wreak a complete destruction in order to cause an enduring construction and development, so be it. How’s it going to be then? Faites vos jeux…

(Image: Hezbollah[Ed] - Google Images)

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