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By Scott Morgan
Two of the phrases that we often hear during this phase of the Syrian Conflict are that we are entering the final phase. The other phrase often quoted is that President Assad has won the conflict.
Can either statement be true when considering the number of actors on the ground ? After all, they all have their agendas for victory and how to implement them. To list them would be an interesting exercise but we start with some basics.
The Basics
Russia
Moscow seeks several goals:
Iran
Tehran seeks to create its own version of the Silk Road:
Turkey
Ankara wants a buffer zone where attacks from Kurdish Extremists and their allies into Turkey will be prevented. How long Turkish Military Units and their allies will remain in Syria has yet to be determined. After the effort around Afrin there are certain objectives that could place them in direct conflict with its allies - the United States and France.
The United States
Washington has maintained a small presence, along with France, to support Syrian Militias that have been fighting Islamist Militant Groups. It appears that some of these groups have either been defeated or have melted away. There are expectations that the Americans will soon withdraw their presence.
Reports indicate that the US Forces will not leave Syria until the Iranians and their proxies leave Syria. So, it appears that while Western Syria seems stable, the Eastern border may remain a flashpoint as it maintains a degree of autonomy. Just how far will President Assad go to reimpose his governance into this region?
Israel
Jerusalem was offered a Security Zone in the Golan Heights area by Russia. The Government promptly rejected this offer. Russia and Israel have gone to great lengths to prevent conflict in the past when Israel saw fit to launch strikes into Syria. What happens when Assad’s Forces, or an Iranian Proxy, decide to attack the Golan in an effort to provoke the Israelis? An even more scary scenario is; what happens when the Israelis retaliate?
Conclusion
As these events take place, President Assad is attempting to consolidate power in the liberated portions of the Western part of Syria. But interesting questions arise:
[The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dissecting Society. © 2007-2018 Author(s) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED]
Can either statement be true when considering the number of actors on the ground ? After all, they all have their agendas for victory and how to implement them. To list them would be an interesting exercise but we start with some basics.
The Basics
Russia
Moscow seeks several goals:
- To present itself as a Major Power that can offset the goals and missions of the Western Alliance
- To assist a long time client state as well while pursuing the goal from Tsarist Russia.
- To have an outlet on the Mediterranean through its bases in the Latakia area.
Iran
Tehran seeks to create its own version of the Silk Road:
- It wants to create a corridor from Iran to Lebanon to support its proxy Hizbullah. They have been able to carve out a route in Iraq so should we be surprised about their efforts in Syria?
- It desires a confrontation with Israel and the closer to the Israeli border this takes place the more the Mullahs in Tehran will be pleased.
Turkey
Ankara wants a buffer zone where attacks from Kurdish Extremists and their allies into Turkey will be prevented. How long Turkish Military Units and their allies will remain in Syria has yet to be determined. After the effort around Afrin there are certain objectives that could place them in direct conflict with its allies - the United States and France.
The United States
Washington has maintained a small presence, along with France, to support Syrian Militias that have been fighting Islamist Militant Groups. It appears that some of these groups have either been defeated or have melted away. There are expectations that the Americans will soon withdraw their presence.
Reports indicate that the US Forces will not leave Syria until the Iranians and their proxies leave Syria. So, it appears that while Western Syria seems stable, the Eastern border may remain a flashpoint as it maintains a degree of autonomy. Just how far will President Assad go to reimpose his governance into this region?
Israel
Jerusalem was offered a Security Zone in the Golan Heights area by Russia. The Government promptly rejected this offer. Russia and Israel have gone to great lengths to prevent conflict in the past when Israel saw fit to launch strikes into Syria. What happens when Assad’s Forces, or an Iranian Proxy, decide to attack the Golan in an effort to provoke the Israelis? An even more scary scenario is; what happens when the Israelis retaliate?
Conclusion
As these events take place, President Assad is attempting to consolidate power in the liberated portions of the Western part of Syria. But interesting questions arise:
- What happens when Shia and Sunni collide as we saw in Iraq?
- Who will support President Assad?
- Who will take the Iranian Money (as long as US Sanctions allow them to provide it)?
(Image: Syrian Crisis - AFP via Google Images)
Comments
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Scott, excellent work. Syria turned out to be a more complex issue than any of us thought, though the end to this whole terrible soap-opera has already been predicted thousands of years ago. The dice have been cast, so let's just sit and wait for the outcome.
ReplyDeleteAm Yisrael Chai.
Hi Morgan,
ReplyDeleteThank you for the information contained here. It always interesting to read about Russia: perhaps one day we will all be able to crack it :).
Cheers