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By Scott Morgan
The Sudanese President is continuing his diplomatic charm offensive regarding another key African Security Issue. After showing his continued influence regarding the morass in South Sudan, he is trying to deflect from his arms trafficking in Libya by supporting one of his main allies' activities.
Ever since the UN Security Council approved a plan, in December 2017, allowing Russia to enter the Central African Republic to train and equip two battalions of the National Army events have proven interesting in the Country. The carnage between Muslim and Christian Militia Groups continued unabated, Three Russian opposition journalists (investigating Russian Private Military Companies) were killed in the country and several militia groups stated they would not disarm until the Russian presence was vacated. How would the Kremlin respond?
Moscow reached out to one of its main allies in Africa for assistance. That person happens to be the Sudanese President, Omar Bashir - the man indicted for War Crimes. The Sudanese have been working with various militias in an effort to have them sit down at the table with Bangui in an effort to form not only an inclusive government but also to expand its influence along the northern and northeastern borders where the Seleka insurgency originated from, back in 2012.
Results from these efforts have not been totally fruitful, however. Therefore, Khartoum is attempting a new tactic to support the Russians in Central African Republic. It is reaching out to two other states which have had interesting and somewhat dubious roles in the collapse of the Central African Republic in 2012.
Which Nations are Being Sought Out?
Country I: Gabon.
Gabon was one of several Francophone nations to send troops to CAR in a vain effort to prop up the Bozizé Government. After a temporary ceasefire, the Seleka forces were able to drive the President from office and seize the reins of power for themselves. Afterwords, when the sectarian violence broke out the Gabonese once again supported the French attempts to restore order. They currently have one of the largest contingents from Africa in the MINUSCA mission. One factor that could delay this effort is the current health of President Ali Bongo. Reports of his stroke and hospitalization in Saudi Arabia could affect the timing of this endeavor.
Country II: Republic of Congo (Brazzaville)
When the second wave of fighting erupted in 2013 a wave of fighters (not native to CAR) entered into the battle zone. Their French dialect suggested that they were from the Congo. However, there is an interesting backstory to the inclusion of Brazzaville: if we turn back the clock to the Cold War it will be revealed that Brazzaville despite being a French Colony was a firm member of the Pro-Soviet Bloc in Africa. It was not until the collapse of the Soviet Union and the discovery of Oil when they discovered their supposed pro-western sympathies.
The first question is: will Sudan use the prior relationship between Moscow and Brazzaville in order to support the Russian led initiative to restore a functioning government? On the surface it appears to be something worth following. Undercutting support for hostile elements is crucial for any entity in the region. Same with reaching out to Gabon. Having these two states provide a united front in support of Bangui will appear to show a base of support to allow for other regional actors to back.
Success in this effort will be a diplomatic defeat for France. Having Russia come into the game at such a late time frame and undercut their efforts to protect their interests will be a huge defeat for Paris. Since most of the French efforts have been supported by the United States at the UN this could be seen as a defeat for Washington as well. Recent complaints by Russia about the US sabotaging arms deliveries to CAR may only amount to pinpricks in the grand scheme of things.
The Russian effort to bring in Bashir to assist in getting the Militias together is a shrewd move by the Kremlin. That being said the poor state of affairs in the Central African Republic for decades show that it may not be as easy as they think.
Ever since the UN Security Council approved a plan, in December 2017, allowing Russia to enter the Central African Republic to train and equip two battalions of the National Army events have proven interesting in the Country. The carnage between Muslim and Christian Militia Groups continued unabated, Three Russian opposition journalists (investigating Russian Private Military Companies) were killed in the country and several militia groups stated they would not disarm until the Russian presence was vacated. How would the Kremlin respond?
Moscow reached out to one of its main allies in Africa for assistance. That person happens to be the Sudanese President, Omar Bashir - the man indicted for War Crimes. The Sudanese have been working with various militias in an effort to have them sit down at the table with Bangui in an effort to form not only an inclusive government but also to expand its influence along the northern and northeastern borders where the Seleka insurgency originated from, back in 2012.
Results from these efforts have not been totally fruitful, however. Therefore, Khartoum is attempting a new tactic to support the Russians in Central African Republic. It is reaching out to two other states which have had interesting and somewhat dubious roles in the collapse of the Central African Republic in 2012.
Which Nations are Being Sought Out?
Country I: Gabon.
Gabon was one of several Francophone nations to send troops to CAR in a vain effort to prop up the Bozizé Government. After a temporary ceasefire, the Seleka forces were able to drive the President from office and seize the reins of power for themselves. Afterwords, when the sectarian violence broke out the Gabonese once again supported the French attempts to restore order. They currently have one of the largest contingents from Africa in the MINUSCA mission. One factor that could delay this effort is the current health of President Ali Bongo. Reports of his stroke and hospitalization in Saudi Arabia could affect the timing of this endeavor.
Country II: Republic of Congo (Brazzaville)
When the second wave of fighting erupted in 2013 a wave of fighters (not native to CAR) entered into the battle zone. Their French dialect suggested that they were from the Congo. However, there is an interesting backstory to the inclusion of Brazzaville: if we turn back the clock to the Cold War it will be revealed that Brazzaville despite being a French Colony was a firm member of the Pro-Soviet Bloc in Africa. It was not until the collapse of the Soviet Union and the discovery of Oil when they discovered their supposed pro-western sympathies.
The first question is: will Sudan use the prior relationship between Moscow and Brazzaville in order to support the Russian led initiative to restore a functioning government? On the surface it appears to be something worth following. Undercutting support for hostile elements is crucial for any entity in the region. Same with reaching out to Gabon. Having these two states provide a united front in support of Bangui will appear to show a base of support to allow for other regional actors to back.
Success in this effort will be a diplomatic defeat for France. Having Russia come into the game at such a late time frame and undercut their efforts to protect their interests will be a huge defeat for Paris. Since most of the French efforts have been supported by the United States at the UN this could be seen as a defeat for Washington as well. Recent complaints by Russia about the US sabotaging arms deliveries to CAR may only amount to pinpricks in the grand scheme of things.
The Russian effort to bring in Bashir to assist in getting the Militias together is a shrewd move by the Kremlin. That being said the poor state of affairs in the Central African Republic for decades show that it may not be as easy as they think.
[The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dissecting Society. © 2007-2018 Author(s) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED]
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Another product of Obama's policies. Remember when Obama and the EU chose to believe that Sudan was a democracy? Hahahahaha!
ReplyDeleteThis may be one of the reasons why Macron is being very aggressive towards Russia and the US: France is losing ground in Africa? France also seems to be losing power when it comes to Iran, as President Trump is taking time to work behind closed doors with Vladimir Putin...but where does Germany come into this equation?
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