Turkey's Brilliant Moves in Syria

By Scott Morgan

Kudos are to be awarded to the Turkish Security Services for their Brilliant Operations undertaken since early November 2018.

We saw the reactions around the world regarding the alleged horrific murder of the Saudi writer for the Washington Post, Jamal Khashoggi, in the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul.This event presented an opportunity for Turkey to achieve two key Policy objectives:

1. Reducing the rising influence of Mohammed Bin Salman and inflict a strategic defeat upon the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
2. Reduce the capabilities of the PKK activities within Turkey by targeting the YPG in Northeastern Syria

This plan was launched by selective leaks to western media outlets showing the assailants of Mr. Khashoggi arriving in Istanbul to conduct this operation. Surveillance Camera footage of Khashoggi was leaked as well. And thus began the manufactured outrage targeting the Saudis. It gained its first success when the United States Senate voted not to support the Saudi led Military Campaign that is still ongoing in Yemen.

One of the main criticisms against President Trump is that he curries favor to Autocratic Regimes. So when he refused to jump on the bandwagon and levy criticism on the Kingdom it presented an opportunity for the Turkish Government to advance on to their second goal. After all, they are judging that President Trump is a weak President. The capture of the House of Representatives by the Democrats during the 2018 midterms can be read as another piece of evidence of the weakness of the President.

So, now the Saudis are in a weakened position within the region and among the International Community. So now it’s time to deal with the bane of the existence of President Erdogan...The Kurdish Militants - while the media and others are distracted by other events.

One of the often used critiques used by the Turkish Government is that the PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party) has received high quality weapons from their Syrian Cousins the YPG (People’s Protection Units) which have formed the core of the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) units that not only govern most of Syria east of the Euphrates River but has been a key ally of the United States during Operations against ISIS - with affiliates not only in Syria but also in Iraq.

This gives the Turkish Security Forces a chance to eradicate what they feel are valid security threats that could present a menace to the state.

Now the US President has decided to fulfill another campaign promise and withdraw American ground forces from Syria. The efforts to mop up ISIS will be left to Turkey according to the Phone Call between the Presidents that took place on December 14th.

There are several groups among the smaller ones, like the Yezhdis and the Syriac Christians, that comprise the SDF and feel once again that they are being thrown to the wolves by the International Community. They do have a valid point. How quickly the events around Mount Sinjar have been forgotten by the international community when the Yezhdis were encircled by ISIS Militants back in 2014.

What will happen after the Turkish Army launches its planned offensive that will most likely target the SDF? If the YPG and its allies are defeated by the Turks then the SAA (Syrian Arab Army) will move across the river and reassert its influence in that part of the country where it has not had a presence for years. The retribution against these communities will be brutal

This will not be the final move that will be made. Turkey has been one of the key supporters of Hamas in the Gaza Strip as well. An emboldened Turkey will most likely launch a new effort to support this ally with either financial aid or weapons. This means that there will be a new threat against the State of Israel as well.

This is a well thought out project by Ankara. 

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