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By Scott Morgan
What was supposed to be a direct training by the Russian Military to the reorganizing Army of the Central African Republic (CAR) grew to include trainers and advisors from several Russian PMCs (Private Military Companies). Some of these companies have a history of operations in Africa supporting several nefarious regimes as they attempt to retain power by whatever means necessary. It has been reported that some of the militias in CAR will not disarm until the Russians leave.
The first question is what would compel Russia take such action? The easy answer is to some people Africa is not a major security concern. Therefore, it is not an issue to be watched closely until some event occurs bringing the situation into focus. Another explanation could be addressed by the phrase “Nature abhors a vacuum.”
As the United States and other powers seem to withdraw from African Interests Russia feels that it is in their interests assert their influence.
The apparent disinterest in the situation inside the Central African Republic (by the west and the neighbors) plays out to a tune similar to heavy handed responses towards Sudan in the past, which has driven these regimes into their hands to conduct business. We are seeing this in the new deals between Moscow and Eritrea, Eastern Libya and Mozambique. These are countries that for the most part have been shunned for Human Rights violations and other governance issues.
Mozambique
The move into Mozambique is proving to be an interesting one. There is already an American PMC currently operating in the Country: this group is headed by Erik Prince, who gained fame and scorn with the operations of Blackwater during its time as a contractor operating in Iraq - after the US Invasion during the administration of George W. Bush.
The situation in the Northeastern part of the country is a matter of concern for a year. A series of random attacks that seem not to concern the authorities in Maputo makes this move to potentially become a flashpoint between the United States and the Russian Federation. What happens when these two combustible elements collide? Will there be a quick disengagement? This is a scenario that is both scary and tantalizing. There have been fears that these attacks have been launched by Jihadists Elements moving into the region as some groups actively seek a new safe haven.
Back to Russia...
So, considering how insular Russians can be how have they reacted to anyone who has been attempting to conduct any oversight? The situation in the Central African Republic has been unique for the actions of the Russian Government's accounting to the UN in the number of weapons and amount of ammunition that has been sent to the torn country. Compare that reaction to the one of the Wagner Group when some Russian Independent Journalists tried to investigate their actions in the country. This incident sounded some alarm bells regarding this group's actions in Central Africa.
Some feel that the US and EU place too strict of a series of benchmarks, on several of these states, restricting them thus from conducting any business with these states. This pushes them into the hands of Russia and other states where Business trumps other concerns. As long as these leaders get paid it doesn’t matter what happens inside their borders.
The influx of Russian PMCs may show that, just like the US Military, it may be overextended by current Operations in both Ukraine and in Syria. Outsourcing these efforts also gives the Kremlin a modicum of deniability that it often uses to temper critical voices from the International Community.
[The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dissecting Society. © 2007-2018 Author(s) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED]
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Hi Morgan,
ReplyDeleteAre we sure these PMCs aren't less private and more like a government tool (that gives margins of deniability)?
Cheers
America is withdrawing from Africa? Are you talking about withdrawing from oil investments?
ReplyDelete