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By Scott Morgan
One of the crucial elements when a successful Coup attempt is launched can be the element of surprise. The event in Gabon did not have this component due to several factors being telegraphed in advance.
Why should any attention be paid to this Oil rich West African state? Because on the same weekend that the attempt took place there was a deployment of American Military Personnel to the country to monitor events in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Now back to the situation in Gabon...
The most recent Presidential Elections were controversial since the Bongo family retained power yet again, leaving elements of the population feeling discouraged in some aspects. Most of the opposition parties are actually able to garner support among the diaspora despite not having much success at home.
The most recent crisis began in November 2018 when the President suffered a stroke during a State Visit to Saudi Arabia. It was interesting to note that President Bongo was one of the few leaders that was actually willing to travel to Saudi Arabia after the Khashoggi killing. Currently he is recovering not back home in Gabon but with his friend - the King of Morocco.
Another Element that needs to be addressed is who is actually running the country? Is President Bongo still in power? According to the Gabonese Constitution the next in line to the Office of the Presidency is the President of the Senate. That person is currently not acting as President. Instead, the Brother of the President, and current head of the intelligence services, is acting as a caretaker until the President is able to return to the Country.
Another question that needs to be asked is: will President Bongo be able to recover to the point where he is actually capable to resume office? Judging by the actions of the small cabal that launched the attempt that answer appears to be no. According to those who watched the speech given by the President on New Years Eve that may have given a motive to launch the failed operation. During that speech the President had slurred discourse. This is one of the classic signs of someone who has has a stroke.
We see that within the period of less than sixty days enough uncertainty existed within Gabon to encourage a small group to see enough chance of an opportunity within the country to launch an effort to bring about a change in Government in Libreville. There is a train of thought that has determined that coups should not occur under any circumstance.
That brings the conversation to the following question: which event is more dangerous to an already uneasy region of Africa:
Neither question provides an answer that analysts will find appealing.
Why should any attention be paid to this Oil rich West African state? Because on the same weekend that the attempt took place there was a deployment of American Military Personnel to the country to monitor events in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Now back to the situation in Gabon...
The most recent Presidential Elections were controversial since the Bongo family retained power yet again, leaving elements of the population feeling discouraged in some aspects. Most of the opposition parties are actually able to garner support among the diaspora despite not having much success at home.
The most recent crisis began in November 2018 when the President suffered a stroke during a State Visit to Saudi Arabia. It was interesting to note that President Bongo was one of the few leaders that was actually willing to travel to Saudi Arabia after the Khashoggi killing. Currently he is recovering not back home in Gabon but with his friend - the King of Morocco.
Another Element that needs to be addressed is who is actually running the country? Is President Bongo still in power? According to the Gabonese Constitution the next in line to the Office of the Presidency is the President of the Senate. That person is currently not acting as President. Instead, the Brother of the President, and current head of the intelligence services, is acting as a caretaker until the President is able to return to the Country.
Another question that needs to be asked is: will President Bongo be able to recover to the point where he is actually capable to resume office? Judging by the actions of the small cabal that launched the attempt that answer appears to be no. According to those who watched the speech given by the President on New Years Eve that may have given a motive to launch the failed operation. During that speech the President had slurred discourse. This is one of the classic signs of someone who has has a stroke.
We see that within the period of less than sixty days enough uncertainty existed within Gabon to encourage a small group to see enough chance of an opportunity within the country to launch an effort to bring about a change in Government in Libreville. There is a train of thought that has determined that coups should not occur under any circumstance.
That brings the conversation to the following question: which event is more dangerous to an already uneasy region of Africa:
- The fact that the coup attempt was launched in the first place?
- Or that it failed?
Neither question provides an answer that analysts will find appealing.
[The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dissecting Society. © 2007-2019 Author(s) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED]
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What if this coup was staged by the president's people?
ReplyDeleteI also found the whole coup attempt very strange and ill organised.
ReplyDelete