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By Scott Morgan
Strategy in the Eastern Mediterranean should become very interesting if recent reports of a new action by Washington bears fruit.
It appears that the Trump Administration is taking steps to end the decades long Arms Embargo that is currently in place against Cyprus. Just on the surface alone this move will anger Turkey as its course of action in Syria should be seen as an effort to return to regional prominence not seen since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire.
History tells us that the events of 1974 which saw a military coup in the country followed by a Turkish invasion led to the Sanctions regime imposed on Turkey and Cyprus by the United States. In 1977, the Carter Administration lifted the arms embargo against Ankara but the embargo was left in place against Cyprus.
Another interesting data point is that in May 2015 the US House of Representatives asked for a report on the capabilities of the Cypriot Military. This means there are some on Capitol Hill that view Cyprus as a potential partner in a chaotic region that has seen chaos since the Arab Spring began, in 2011.
It is clear that to some strategists that there was and still is some fear that Cyprus could collapse under both internal and external factors and become another Syria or Libya. This could place into jeopardy the large blocs of Natural Gas that Cyprus has been exploring in a consortium with Greece, Israel and Egypt. Chaos in the energy markets would be exploited by other actors especially if their own economies are facing outside pressures as well.
Cyprus has been a player as well in maintaining regional harmony despite past tensions with Israel and Turkey. It has shown how ethnic divisions could be resolved through diplomacy rather than by armed conflict.
Cyprus has been moving forward out onto the world stage. It will soon begin reaping its rewards.
It appears that the Trump Administration is taking steps to end the decades long Arms Embargo that is currently in place against Cyprus. Just on the surface alone this move will anger Turkey as its course of action in Syria should be seen as an effort to return to regional prominence not seen since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire.
History tells us that the events of 1974 which saw a military coup in the country followed by a Turkish invasion led to the Sanctions regime imposed on Turkey and Cyprus by the United States. In 1977, the Carter Administration lifted the arms embargo against Ankara but the embargo was left in place against Cyprus.
Why has this move taken so long? After all the embargo has not been actually enforced since November 1992 by the US.
Another interesting data point is that in May 2015 the US House of Representatives asked for a report on the capabilities of the Cypriot Military. This means there are some on Capitol Hill that view Cyprus as a potential partner in a chaotic region that has seen chaos since the Arab Spring began, in 2011.
It is clear that to some strategists that there was and still is some fear that Cyprus could collapse under both internal and external factors and become another Syria or Libya. This could place into jeopardy the large blocs of Natural Gas that Cyprus has been exploring in a consortium with Greece, Israel and Egypt. Chaos in the energy markets would be exploited by other actors especially if their own economies are facing outside pressures as well.
Cyprus has been a player as well in maintaining regional harmony despite past tensions with Israel and Turkey. It has shown how ethnic divisions could be resolved through diplomacy rather than by armed conflict.
Cyprus has been moving forward out onto the world stage. It will soon begin reaping its rewards.
(Image: Paphos[Ed] by Demetra Panaretou via Google Search)
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I'd say the dynamics in the region is getting very interesting and I'm glad the US is helping to change it. Good job, Scott.
ReplyDeleteI root for Cyprus cause I root for any of Turkey's foes! Carter was definitely the worst US president in history, what a douche.
ReplyDeleteI didn't know there was an embargo in place. Thank you for informing me, Mr Morgan!
ReplyDelete