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By Scott Morgan
Events that have taken place in Sudan since April 11th appear to be offering change at a pace that raised several objections to.
Having Bashir out of the picture is an optimistic sign not just for Sudan but also in its southern neighbors in South Sudan. Riek Machar has just lost his main International benefactor in his efforts to gain control of the country. This potentially could be a factor that leads to the success of the Peace Process in South Sudan.
But there are a couple of negative factors at work here. Already the Military Council has stated that Sudanese Forces, currently on the Ground in Yemen supporting Saudi-led efforts to defeat the Houthis, will remain there for the foreseeable future. This action could be explained by the recent announcement of Aid packages by both the Saudis and the Emirates to Sudan after the removal of Bashir. Some analysts will assess that outside elements have orchestrated these events.
Individuals who thrived under the patronage of Bashir have been removed from their positions of power. The pace of change has not pleased the protestors who have not returned home as they desire civilian leadership, and it has not impressed the AU either.
On the 15th of April, the AU issued a statement stating that the Military Council had to transfer power to civilians within 15 days or Sudan would be expelled from the AU. The initial plan of the first Military Tribunal was to have elections in two years after a thirty day State of Emergency. Two years may be too long for a transition to a civilian government but 15 days is too short of a time frame to transition.
One of the hard lessons learned so far, this century, is that Democratic Ideals have to sprout up naturally within a country and should not be imported in by an outside power. One of the reasons is that some deadlines that are imposed are arbitrarily imposed and often do not yield the desired results that are often sought after. The same argument is to be applied to coups and how often the reactions to the coup by donor nations often make the situation on the grounds worse off then what took place before the coup was launched.
Sudan appears to be on the road to Democracy. Will it actually be allowed to prosper and grow? Or will it be strangled in the crib? That is the important question to ask right now.
Having Bashir out of the picture is an optimistic sign not just for Sudan but also in its southern neighbors in South Sudan. Riek Machar has just lost his main International benefactor in his efforts to gain control of the country. This potentially could be a factor that leads to the success of the Peace Process in South Sudan.
But there are a couple of negative factors at work here. Already the Military Council has stated that Sudanese Forces, currently on the Ground in Yemen supporting Saudi-led efforts to defeat the Houthis, will remain there for the foreseeable future. This action could be explained by the recent announcement of Aid packages by both the Saudis and the Emirates to Sudan after the removal of Bashir. Some analysts will assess that outside elements have orchestrated these events.
Reaction from the streets suggest that a complete and total break from the Bashir era is desired.
Individuals who thrived under the patronage of Bashir have been removed from their positions of power. The pace of change has not pleased the protestors who have not returned home as they desire civilian leadership, and it has not impressed the AU either.
On the 15th of April, the AU issued a statement stating that the Military Council had to transfer power to civilians within 15 days or Sudan would be expelled from the AU. The initial plan of the first Military Tribunal was to have elections in two years after a thirty day State of Emergency. Two years may be too long for a transition to a civilian government but 15 days is too short of a time frame to transition.
One of the hard lessons learned so far, this century, is that Democratic Ideals have to sprout up naturally within a country and should not be imported in by an outside power. One of the reasons is that some deadlines that are imposed are arbitrarily imposed and often do not yield the desired results that are often sought after. The same argument is to be applied to coups and how often the reactions to the coup by donor nations often make the situation on the grounds worse off then what took place before the coup was launched.
Sudan appears to be on the road to Democracy. Will it actually be allowed to prosper and grow? Or will it be strangled in the crib? That is the important question to ask right now.
(Image: Sudanese Military oust Bashir[Ed] - France24 via Google Images)
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Hey Morgan,
ReplyDeleteThat is actually a great question: even though there's a high opportunity for change, will the world allow it? Will Russia?
Cheers
Which countries do not have an interest in seeing Sudan thriving?
ReplyDelete