ISWAP: Is the Caliphate 2.0 Under Way in Africa?

By Scott Morgan

The world was caught with genuine surprise when, in late April 2019, a video surfaced purporting to show the leader of the Islamic State Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. It was believed that this was the first time his image was shown since declaring his version of the Caliphate back in 2014.

One of the key moments in the speech - which used the Easter Sunday attacks in Sri Lanka as a reference point to ensure it was a current reference - was when the call for militants operating in West Africa to multiply attacks against “Crusader France and its allies.”

He also congratulated militants in both Burkina Faso and Mali for pledging allegiance to the Islamic State.

While Western Intelligence Services played their game of verifying whether or not it was indeed the leader in the video (shot in early April) there were several key events in the region where it appears that Baghdadi gave the blessings to launch operations. That being said, here is the latest tally of the incidents that have taken place in West Africa since the release of that video.

Mali

An incident took place over the weekend of May 9th: two separate Peacekeeping camps (one near Kidal and the other near Timbuktu) were attacked by Militants. One Peacekeeper was killed and three wounded in both attacks.

Burkina Faso

Also during the month of May at least three Churches were attacked. At least 12 people were killed one of them being a Priest. One of the beings was actually razed to the ground. These incidents occurred in the Northern part of the Country. Most of the current efforts to conduct CT operations in Burkina Faso are in the Southern part of the country.

Niger

Just two weeks ago, 17 Nigerien Soldiers were ambushed near the Tongo Tongo. This was the location where 4 US Green Berets were ambushed back in 2017. The backlash here in Washington still continues with the acting Secretary of Defense Patrick Robinson launching his own investigation to what actually transpired and the subsequent investigation that was undertaken by the Pentagon. This appears to be an effort to set up a safe space within Niger that will be empty of a presence of both the Niger Government and its Western allies.

Nigeria

On May 23rd, images were shared on Social Media showing that ISWAP (Islamic State West African Province) has captured a large quantity of vehicles near the Lake Chad region. Some of the vehicles shown appear to be heavy armor as well. How these vehicles will be used is yet to be determined.

#Nigeria: This is the first time I see #ISWAP militants seized boats on the #LakeofChad. In general, the amount of weapons and vehicles, armored vehicles, and tanks seized is unbelievable and alarming. pic.twitter.com/3NfnaukvX7

— Rida Lyammouri (@rmaghrebi) May 22, 2019

We should not forget the two French Commandos that were killed in Benin rescuing the four kidnapping victims. It is alleged that the kidnappers came from Burkina Faso as well.

These actions show that there is some effort to take against France and their allies in the region. This is an easy sell but it appears that with the vast spaces and poorly defined and marked borders of the Sahel Countries that it could be an ideal location to launch Caliphate 2.0

The current Western Strategy of using UAVs and Special Forces is not bearing the fruit expected with the generally low costs incurred. 

Economic Investments and Good Governance will be able to move the region forward.

(Image: ISWA[Ed] via Google Images)

[The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dissecting Society™ . © 2007-2019 Author(s) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED]