Armenia and Azerbaijan at it yet again

By Scott Morgan

For the second time this year conflict has erupted between the former Soviet Republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan.  Yet again the hostilities appear to be over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh which is an Armenian enclave within Azerbaijan.  There is an interesting backstory regarding this hotspot. 

After the October Revolution of 1917 when the Bolsheviks overthrew Czar Nicholas II there was a complete and total breakdown of the Russian State. Civil War would break out and last until 1921. During this brief period both countries were briefly independent and fought the first series of conflicts before both states were absorbed by the Soviet Union. 

During the Seventy Years while both were considered to be Constituent Republics of the Soviet Union. However a decision to place Nagorno-Karabakh into the Azerbaijani SSR by Joseph Stalin set the stage for future conflict. Even though the Armenians did have some Autonomy the Azeri Population started to increase. Therefore, by 1960, ethnic tensions began to rise. 

However, when the Soviet Union itself collapsed in 1991 the stage appears to be set for the series of conflicts that continue today. All 15 members of the Soviet Union did vote for Independence.  In Nagorno-Karabakh the Armenians voted to create an Independent Armenian State while the local Azeri Population decided to boycott the Polls. This led to War between Armenia and Azerbaijan that year. 

Now in 2020 there have been two periods of conflict. A brief skirmish that erupted in late July and the conflict that broke out in late September. This round of fighting has had the ability to garner some attention on the World Scene. On September 29th an Emergency Meeting of the UN Security Council has been called to address this phase of conflict. 

One reason for the UN actions are some interesting reports. Several News Agencies (Reuters for example) have reported that Turkish Aircraft have flown sorties in support of Azeri Forces. There have been additional reports of Fighters from Syria being flown into Azerbaijan by Turkey to provide additional support on the ground for the Azeris. There are even claims that there are Pakistani Troops on the ground supporting the Azeris as well. 

Any student of history will realize the unique role that Turkey has in this conflict. Most analysts remember the Armenian Genocide that began in 1915 as the Ottomans believed that the Armenians were actively supporting the Czarist Army that was attacking the Empire. What is not generally remembered is that in 1918 as the war was winding down that an Army of Islam comprised of Ottoman Soldiers launched an Operation that led them to occupy Baku and forced the Bolsheviks to accept assistance from British Troops stationed in Persia. This is a precedent for Turkish support for the Azeri forces.

The presence of these foreign fighters reportedly imported by Turkey can be seen as proof of a major Geo-political play at works. It has been suggested that potential Pipeline routes could also be a factor in the conflict resuming at this time. Azerbaijan is a producer of Oil and Natural Gas and the product does need to be shipped to ports along the Mediterranean Sea. 

It appears that this conflict could intensify if more actors intervene in support of either Azerbaijan or Armenia. That is another danger that Diplomats will seek to eradicate. Success however may be another story. 

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