Chaos in Kyrgzstan

By Scott Morgan

One has to admire the fortitude of an enraged population that causes them to not only say enough but also to take matters into their own hands and create the change that they desire.

History reminds us of two clear examples: first was the overthrow of the French Monarchy in the early 1790s after Marie Antoinette stated "Let them eat Cake." A more recent example occured in 1986 when then Phillipine President Ferdinand Marcos tried to fraudlenty win reelection despite numbers showing that He didn't win. The people took to the Street and the Phillipine Military intervened to force a change. The result was a new President for the Phillipines.

Fast foward now to 2020. On October 4th Legislative Elections were held in Kyrzgzstan. The results initally found that Pro-Government Parties achieved a Supermajority in the upcoming Parliament. This in itself is an import fact. Due to infighting between President Sooronbay Jeenbekov and Prime Minister Almazbek Atambayev the ruling  Social Democratic Party of Kyrgzstan did not contest any seat in these polls.The next day the Central Election Commission annulled the results, before the new date for polls could be announced.

That hasn't stopped the Opposition from sensing that this could be their moment for change.  Supporters of the Opposition actually took the initiative and stormed the Parliament and other Government Buildings. The follwoing day Prime Minister tendered his resignation ensuring that not only would a new Parliament would be coming but also a new Government for the Country.

The big question is: 

What happens next? 

Instead of unifying and forming their own Government the Opposition Parties are showing how divided they really are.  

• First of all, there is a Coordination Council comprised of Political Parties that were opposed to Jeenbekov. 
• Second, there is a People's Coordination Council which is comprised of smaller parties that have never held postions in Government. They are calling for a purge of elites from Government.
• Third, the Ata Zhurt has launched an effort to have the still sitting Parliament nominate as Prime Minster its leader Sadyr Zhaparov who was imprisoned but freed by a Mob from prison during the riots that took place. Before this action could take place a mob stormed the Hotel where Parliament was meeting and forced Mr. Zhaparov to flee the building. There is currently no timetable for when another effort to install him as Prime Minister will take place. 

So, what will the next step be? Will Moscow or Beijing intervene? It is way too early to determine such an action but we should assume that the situation is being closely monitored by both powers. The fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan has been the focus of most analysts of the region but they should not be ignoring this one either.

Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Afghanistan should be watching this situation with baited breath as well.  Change is coming to Kyrgzstan but who will emerge as the leader is unclear. 

[The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dissecting Society™ . © 2007-2020 Author(s) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED]