A Tale of Two Elections

By Scott Morgan

December 27th, 2020 saw two elections in Africa.  The elections garnered different reactions and coverage in the media as well different views in optimism about not only would the results yield but what path these countries are on. 

The Election that garnered most of the Media Coverage and concern took place in the Central African Republic. This poll was the one that made security analysts nervous to put it mildly.  One aspect of this election that offered a glimmer of optimism was the knowledge that there would be a elected Legislature since the crisis began.

Sadly there is considerable focus about what are seen as negative factors. These factors are considered to be serious concerns. Vast swaths of the country are controlled by insurgent groups. It has emerged that activities by rebel groups were able to close 800 polling stations. Former President Francois Bozize who was prevented from being a candidate has linked up with some groups and is now reported to be near the Cameroon Border. 

Another concern to some is the emerging role of Russian Actors. Before the elections two Helicopters were sent into the country by Russia as some of the forces allied to Bozize threatened to march on the Capital Bangui. Other African States such as Rwanda, Chad and Tunisia sent troops to the Country as well to ensure that the Capital would be safe enough for voting. The Incumbent Faustin-Archange Touadera was even seen in photos in recent days being accompanied by Russian Private Security. 

It appears that President Touadera will be reelected but what happens after the release of the results will determine what happens next. 

The quiet election (meaning lack of major coverage) took place in a Sahel Country which has had issues with Jihadist attacks over the last few years. That country is Niger. Like in the Central African Republic there were elections to vote for both a President and a Legislature. 

There was a major distinction however. After serving two terms as President, the Incumbent Mahamadou Issofou decided not to stand for a third term and hand power over to whomever the electorate chose to succeed him. This would be a first in the 60 years that Niger has been Independent and bucks a regional trend that has played out recent in Guinea and Ivory Coast. 

Niger has had its own issues with Insurgents that operate near the borders with both Mali and Burkina Faso. There were attacks on election day as well. It appears that any effort to disrupt the polls were a failure. 

Currently it appears that former Interior Minister Mohamed Bazoum who is in the same party as the outgoing Incumbent leads in the polls. If he holds on to win He promises continuity with the policies with his immediate predecessor and will have to face the security challenges that plague the Sahel. 

A Peaceful transfer of power or more chaos? Not a hard choice to make is it. 

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