Escalation in Ethiopia?

By Scott Morgan

When the Ethiopian Government launched its offensive against the Tigray region in November 2020, not only did it catch Africa watchers by surprise it even some new narratives came to light as a result of the conflict. 

First of all a quick victory by the Ethiopian Military was expected over Tigray Forces. Most of the Tigray Forces were comprised of elements of the TPLF (Tigray People's Liberation Front) which at one point were the party in control of national affairs in Addis

Secondly was this an effort by current Ethiopian Prime Minister and Nobel Laurelate Abiy Ahmed to consolidate power.  The TPLF was part of the governing coalition that ruled the country from the end of the 1991 civil war until the members of the ruling coaltion merged to form the ruling Prosperity Party in 2019. 

Tensions began to rise when the Prime Minister accused the TPLF of undermining his ability to run the country. The elections for the Tigray Parliament which were run in September 2020 were not recgonized by the authorities in Addis as well. The road to conflict was finally paved and it was only a matter of time before hostilities commenced. 

Even though hostilities were declared over by the Prime Minister on November 30th, 2020 conflict still occurs and has recently spilled over into Sudan. There are reports that the Eritreans are an active participant in the conflict supporting the Ethiopian Government.  A week into the new Biden Administration found that calling for Eritrean Forces to leave as an early Foreign Policy test.

But the crisis with Sudan is the flashpoint which people analysts are concerned with the most.  As most press coverage has covered the Tigray offensive there have been several cross border incidents where Ethiopian gangs have crossed the border and seized farms and displaced the inhabitants.  There have been reports of fatalities and overflights by the respective Air Forces as well. 

The Government of Abiy has stated that it is willing to hold talks with Sudan to address the unfolding crisis however the Sudanese have to evacuate the territory in dispute before any talks can proceed. Clearly the treaty signed between Britain and Ethiopia in 1904 which had no verifiable lines of demarcation is the target of the actions of the Abiy Government. 

There is a theory that when a Government has domestic challenges then the populace need to be distracted by an external threat. It does appear that this scenario is playing out in the Horn of Africa. 

[The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dissecting Society™ . © 2007-2020 Author(s) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED]