Dejá Vu?

By Scott Morgan

There are some interesting similarities to the withdrawal of US Forces from Afghanistan and the end of the Vietnam War. Some of those similarities are too close to be coincidence however.

First, both operations have ended in April. Just on this note the symbolism in enough to garner one's attention. The Vietnam War effectively ended on April 30,1975 when Communist Forces captured the Capital of the Republic of Vietnam (South Vietnam) Saigon. On April 29th 2021, the Biden Administration officially announced that the United States has formally began the process of withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan after a presence of two decades in the country.

Another point of interest is that both conflicts used the term "America's Longest War". The US Role in Vietnam effectively began supporting the French effort to retain control of the region which ended with the defeat at Dien Bien Phu in 1954.  During the Kennedy and Johnson Administrations saw an increased involvement by the US Military to prop up the Government in Saigon. This would end during the term of Richard Nixon followed some time later by the collapse of the pro-Western Government in Saigon and victory by the Communists.

Here is a point of contrast though: the US Military went into Afghanistan in 2001 after the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.  Much like in Vietnam it will be argued that the US effort at Nation Building would be a failure. Some of the issues that plagued Afghanistan before 2001, such as Opium Production, show no sign of abatement anytime in the near future. 

One concern that will probably be heard is that both conflicts overexposed the US Military. The US Military was in decline in the late 1970s until the Reagan Administration assumed office and started to rebuild and retool the Armed Forces. After two decades of conflict, in Afghanistan and Iraq, the US Military - in particular reserve formations and National Guard Units - are showing signs of stress from the constant deployments. This could be a factor in the future for the next National Security threat that faces the United States.

The next challenge will be to determine what will that part of Central Asia look like within the next decade? The border between Afghanistan and Pakistan will be one of the most interesting areas to observe. There is a noticeable Taliban Presence in Pakistan. If the Taliban regains power in Afghanistan, as expected, what will this mean for Pakistan? 

The Administration in Washington can explain its move by noting a shifting security environment that is presenting new challenges. Policies that will challenge Russia and China may see the focus shift to both Europe and the Pacific Rim. Hopefully, this part of Central Asia will not become an afterthought to decision makers in Washington. It made this mistake before when the Red Army withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989. A little more than a decade later the US Military entered the country.

We have heard that Afghanistan is the graveyard of empires. Will this be the time the US proves the experts wrong? Only time will tell. 

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