Sudan: Coming Full Circle

By Scott Morgan

The Coup that removed Abdalla Hamdok as Prime Minister of Sudan Gene in October 2021 is finally complete. General Hemeti who was the senior Military leader in the transitional Government remains firmly entrenched in power. So, what happens next?

One question that needs an answer is how much leeway will the new Prime Minister have from the Military? It appears that as long as that individual is adept at relieving the debt that strangles the Sudanese Economy could be a benefit to a potential term as PM.  They should realize that they probably serve as a face for the Military.

Another concern to be addressed is how popular will this person be? Mr. Hamdok was very popular on the street.  The protestors were livid that he was actually removed from power. That maintained his popularity. However, when the Military decided to reinstate him as Prime Minister the situation changed. He was seen to have sold out to the Military.  That was one of the factors that led to his resignation.

We know that the October events were designed to ensure that the Military stayed in power and to keep certain officers from facing justice for their actions in both Darfur and in the Nuba Mountains.

How much pressure will be placed on the new leadership to ensure that these officers do not atone for their actions? 

We have heard how the United States has frozen the funds that were allocated to allow Sudan to continue along the path it was on towards a transition to Democracy. Inflation was a problem before the ouster of Bashir. Some of the reforms by Hamdok and others appeared to be showing initial signs of bearing fruit. 

If the economy stagnates again how soon will the calls for change appear yet again?

When Bashir was ousted it was suggested that Sudan was at a crossroads. One could say that the country has gone down one path did a u-turn and has returned to the same crossroads. The question now becomes what direction will Sudan take? or should that read what directions will the Generals be willing to take?

Another interesting question to ask is just how much leverage does the United States have right now? It's not possible to throw a carrot to them and remove them from Terrorism lists which are actions that the Obama Administration began and then approved by Trump. The best offer the US can make is financial help and possibly trade to create revenue. 

Sometimes the more things change, the more they stay the same. It appears that Sudan is providing ample evidence that this is a fact. 

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