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There seems to be a general idea that a military intervention in Iran, by either the US or Israel, is imminent. Will these two nations fall for the Iranian propaganda?
Iran is developing a nuclear program, allegedly to produce energy only. The World believes Iran’s nuclear program for energetic purposes conceals a parallel nuclear program for military and political use. It is very hard to believe in Iran, a country that consistently threatens to wipe off Israel from the face of the earth along with its closest allies; therefore I support the World’s point of view. However, it can’t be discarded that the whole affair is beginning to sound very much like a strategic fait-divert on the part of Iran and its allies (hence the reluctance to strike the Persian nation).
Iranian Disinformation
Iran knows that her nuclear program is not complete; yet she disseminates information about her alleged nuclear intentions and might for political and strategic reasons. It is vital to Iran to lead the West (with the help of Israel) into striking her for two reasons: 1- to further weaken the Western Economy (Strike II; since Strike I was the Afghanistan & Iraq Wars, which nearly ruined Western economies), 2- to re-unify the Muslim people in the ME against the West and, the favourite Iranian Straw Man, Israel (the Arab Spring revealed that people in the region crave for a western-like democracy and all its perks, which eventually would lead to peace agreements with the Zionists). This latter reason is so true that Hezbollah deputy, Sheikh Naim Qassem, gave a rare interview to Reuters where he continued the Iranian propaganda of fear/provocation:
Fear: “America knows that if there is a war on Iran, this means that the whole region will be set alight, with no limit to the fires,”
Provocation: “America's criteria in relation to the Arab revolutions are not uniform and have nothing to do with human rights or democracy.” and “(…) America has reservations because of the dangers of this war and because of the upcoming (presidential) election,”
Fear: “Israel could start a war ... but it does not know the scale of the consequences and it is incapable of controlling them.”
Provocation: “Israel does not have the capability nor the courage to wage war by itself on Iran (…)”
Iran is using all her friends to thicken the plot: Syrian Al-Assad, in vain, tries to cling to power to offer the impression that he is fighting against the “upheaval caused by the US”; Ishmail Haniyeh (Hamas’ leader), last month, vowed in Iran that his organisation “will never recognise Israel” and President Abbas, in Qatar also last month, accuses the Straw Man of “trying to erase the Arab, Muslim, and Christian nature of Jerusalem” – it couldn’t get more political than this and the timing is perfect.
Ahmadinejad’s tenure is almost coming to an end, but I suspect he vowed he wouldn’t go without leaving his mark in History. If he pulls this one off (i.e. if the US, Israel and allies actually fall for it and strike) then it can be said that Ahmadinejad is the biggest king of Information Warfare in the whole world; but at what cost?
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Iran reminds me of Iraq. Saddam acted as if he had nukes, he made us go there and in the end the suspicions of Colin Powel were correct: there was nothing. Iran is having the same behaviour, now imagine we attack only to discover it was in vain?
ReplyDeleteSometimes war helps the economy though.
ReplyDeleteMax, what you are saying here makes sense. I confess that I was praying for the US (or even Israel) to attack Iran but your perspective made me rethink the whole thing. And now it got me thinking of another thing: what if the goal is also to weaken the Israeli economy and public moral? Israel didn't suffer with the world crisis and her moral is up (to my mind comes the success of the Iron Dome and the release of Gilad Shalit)! All of this while making the Arabs/Muslims forget their fight for democracy and rally behind their corrupt governments into attacking the US and Israel.
ReplyDeletePresident Abbas is an embarrassment: he pretends to be moderate but he is not. I think the West is beginning to see this but admitting to it would be the same as admitting to people that the Middle East Peace may be unattainable. What to do then?
Yes, Ahmadinejad is vain and I wouldn't be surprised if he had a plan to exit office after stamping History with his personal seal.
Olá Max,
ReplyDeleteFeliz Purim! I think Ana forgot to express her holiday wishes lol...
About Iran: I wouldn't be surprised if that was Ahmadinejad's plan at all. I look at him and I see a cunning and conniving man at the same time; but we must not forget the Ayatollah cause he started the nuclear program saying "a nuclear arsenal would serve Iran as a deterrent in the hands of God's soldiers" (around 1984) meaning that Ahmadinejad may be a puppet in the hands of the clergyman (who has an evil tongue).
Knowing details of the Iranian Nuclear Program gives us a perspective on why China and Russia are so reluctant on deterring Iran and Syria (for all that matter). Their involvement and liability is huge.
Max, I absolutely loved this post: it is different, unique and refreshing (when compared to the amount of c**p we hear on TV nowadays), truly well done! This is why I keep coming back for more.
Tchau
There are bigger games being played in the Islamic world Max. Basically, it is Shia vs Sunni Muslim contest for superiority and control. If a Sunni despot of a Shia majority country faces problems, be assured that Iran is playing a card there and vice versa with Shia despots. This has spilled over into other countries with Muslim populations like India, Thailand and Pakistan and to me this would appear to be a defining moment in the history of Islam itself.
ReplyDeleteIn the process, Israel and the West are propaganda tools. No more no less.
Max:
ReplyDeleteI totally agree with you on this one. You've hit the nail right on the head.
Having said that, however, in the back of my mind, I can't help wondering if Iran isn't just playing the loud mouth while Russia and China sit on the sidelines and watch the action. In a hot war confrontation between the USA and Iran, both countries would surely supply Iran with high technology armaments. And that's something the USA has never faced. We've always had the high-tech edge. Not only could they damage our economy, they could win the war. After all, the current administration is moving full speed ahead in reducing our military budget. They've already decimated NASA. We depend on Russia for our rides into space. How bad is that? And, of course, China will certainly be next to conquer that frontier with a full-scale military base on the moon. Forget space treaties. It'll be a whole new ball game. Where will Israel and the U.S. be then? And for that matter, what about the rest of the world? It's a bad scenario.
As you point out, such a confrontation would further drain U.S resources. I say it would also cause more unemployment, more dependence on government aid, and 'Bingo!' Obama has his socialistic economy with everyone in the country dependent on him for their very existence. I dread the day when Americans would hail, "Long live the King!"
Meanwhile, with the exceedingly large economic stake China has in the USA, what's to prevent it from issuing us a "fait accompli" surrender or face total economic occupation?
Obviously, I am no great government thinker. And I like to consider myself a political independent. But the state of affairs in the world today, and the level of our current leadership, worries me. I loved your post. Keep up the good word.
As always, happy trails.
Indeed Iran has been an enigma for many and even for the such bright US intelligence and the best part for Iran is even though it has rivals in its backyard, it also does have giant friends far away and this is what is restricting the super-powers to go all out against it. I think a shrewd and tactful diplomacy will be far better than an aggressive cold headedness, which may lead to nothing, but may ignite a few neighbouring empires.
ReplyDeleteHello Anonymous :D!
ReplyDelete"Iran reminds me of Iraq. Saddam acted as if he had nukes, he made us go there and in the end the suspicions of Colin Powel were correct: there was nothing. Iran is having the same behaviour, now imagine we attack only to discover it was in vain? "
I understand your concerns (extremely valid ones) and I do not disagree with you.
Anonymous, thank you so much for sharing your thoughts with us :D.
Cheers
Hi Vid :D!
ReplyDelete"Sometimes war helps the economy though."
That is also true however it did not happen quite as planned with the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, did it?
Vid, thank you so much for sharing your thoughts with us :D. It's always nice to have you here, man.
Cheers
Hi Ana :D!
ReplyDelete"(...) what if the goal is also to weaken the Israeli economy and public moral? Israel didn't suffer with the world crisis and her moral is up (to my mind comes the success of the Iron Dome and the release of Gilad Shalit)!"
That could also be part of the plan, who knows (you make a very interesting case, here).
"All of this while making the Arabs/Muslims forget their fight for democracy and rally behind their corrupt governments into attacking the US and Israel."
Without a doubt.
"President Abbas is an embarrassment: he pretends to be moderate but he is not. I think the West is beginning to see this but admitting to it would be the same as admitting to people that the Middle East Peace may be unattainable. What to do then?"
I was having this same conversation a few days ago with someone who said that he doubted that Fatah was Sunni (his case was basically that Iran is behind both Hamas and Fatah)...would you agree?
What to do indeed? It's a complex situation, darling.
"Yes, Ahmadinejad is vain and I wouldn't be surprised if he had a plan to exit office after stamping History with his personal seal."
Indeed...
Ana, thank you so much for your amazing input :D.
Cheers
Olá Celeste :D!
ReplyDelete"Feliz Purim! I think Ana forgot to express her holiday wishes lol..."
Thank you: I hope you had a happy festivity. LOL perhaps she couldn't wait to end her fast lol *nodding*...
"About Iran: I wouldn't be surprised if that was Ahmadinejad's plan at all. I look at him and I see a cunning and conniving man at the same time; but we must not forget the Ayatollah cause he started the nuclear program saying "a nuclear arsenal would serve Iran as a deterrent in the hands of God's soldiers" (around 1984) meaning that Ahmadinejad may be a puppet in the hands of the clergyman (who has an evil tongue)."
Very good point indeed. Yes, the Iranian nuclear ambitions are old enough (the same way Iranian threats to Israel and the US are), what would be interesting to know is why the rush to attack it now; what triggered it (but that we might never know).
"Knowing details of the Iranian Nuclear Program gives us a perspective on why China and Russia are so reluctant on deterring Iran and Syria (for all that matter). Their involvement and liability is huge."
Agreed.
"Max, I absolutely loved this post: it is different, unique and refreshing (when compared to the amount of c**p we hear on TV nowadays), truly well done! This is why I keep coming back for more."
An opinion is an opinion and all opinions are vital in a democracy. Thank you *bowing*. You are very kind, darling.
Celeste, thank you ever so much for your outstanding comment and generosity :D.
Cheers
Hi Rummy :D!
ReplyDelete"There are bigger games being played in the Islamic world Max."
I doubt not, my friend.
"Basically, it is Shia vs Sunni Muslim contest for superiority and control. If a Sunni despot of a Shia majority country faces problems, be assured that Iran is playing a card there and vice versa with Shia despots. This has spilled over into other countries with Muslim populations like India, Thailand and Pakistan and to me this would appear to be a defining moment in the history of Islam itself."
I agree with you.
"In the process, Israel and the West are propaganda tools. No more no less."
True.
Rummy, thank you so so much for your outstanding comment :D.
Cheers
Look who's around...I missed you, man!
ReplyDeleteHi Swu :D!
"You've hit the nail right on the head."
Thanks *bowing*.
"Having said that, however, in the back of my mind, I can't help wondering if Iran isn't just playing the loud mouth while Russia and China sit on the sidelines and watch the action."
You may be on to something there...
"In a hot war confrontation between the USA and Iran, both countries would surely supply Iran with high technology armaments."
Yeah, I suggested the same in a previous post (about Syria)...
"We've always had the high-tech edge. Not only could they damage our economy, they could win the war. After all, the current administration is moving full speed ahead in reducing our military budget."
I am not sure they would win the war, but they could do a lot of damage, yes. So, I heard and I do not agree with cuts in the military budget...but no administration is perfect.
"They've already decimated NASA. We depend on Russia for our rides into space. How bad is that?"
It is definitely not good, in my humble opinion.
"And, of course, China will certainly be next to conquer that frontier with a full-scale military base on the moon. Forget space treaties. It'll be a whole new ball game. Where will Israel and the U.S. be then? And for that matter, what about the rest of the world? It's a bad scenario."
Indeed, the world is changing and old tactics will not work. The US and Israel keep up with those changes a bit faster, I'm afraid, cause like you said it's "a whole new ball game".
"As you point out, such a confrontation would further drain U.S resources. I say it would also cause more unemployment, more dependence on government aid, and 'Bingo!' Obama has his socialistic economy with everyone in the country dependent on him for their very existence."
Do you think President Obama is a socialist? I don't view him as such at all. However, I know where you are coming from.
"Meanwhile, with the exceedingly large economic stake China has in the USA, what's to prevent it from issuing us a "fait accompli" surrender or face total economic occupation?"
I understand your concerns...
"Obviously, I am no great government thinker. And I like to consider myself a political independent. But the state of affairs in the world today, and the level of our current leadership, worries me. I loved your post. Keep up the good word."
You could fool me, mate :). The world is in a mess today, but usually confusion foretells the advent of a new era...but what we want to know is who will win the battle for hegemony...cause that's what is at stake here.
Thank you, Swu: I will try :D.
Swu, thank you ever so much for this outstanding comment :D. Always a pleasure to hear your thoughts :D.
Cheers
Hi Kalyan :D!
ReplyDelete"Indeed Iran has been an enigma for many and even for the such bright US intelligence and the best part for Iran is even though it has rivals in its backyard, it also does have giant friends far away and this is what is restricting the super-powers to go all out against it."
You got a point there.
"I think a shrewd and tactful diplomacy will be far better than an aggressive cold headedness, which may lead to nothing, but may ignite a few neighbouring empires."
I would give priority to diplomacy as well, mainly because I feel that we are being disinformed and misled. And yes, a military intervention would ignite a few friends and neighbours (as planned by Iran).
Kalyan, an outstanding comment for which I thank you, mate :D.
Cheers