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Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah passed away last Friday. May he rest in peace. I'm not going to delve into what the new Saudi Arabia will look like since many have already done that ever since they heard the King was ill. Instead, I will focus on two details that captured my attention...
The King passed away on Friday. On Saturday, more than 10 world leaders were present to pay their respects to the Saudi Royal Family and meet the successor...except one: US President Barack Obama, who arrives today (Tuesday) with his delegation. Another interesting detail is the presence of Iran's Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif.
Johnny Dymond, from the BBC, said that “the long list of dignitaries travelling to Riyadh is testament to Saudi Arabia's global standing.” - doubt the accuracy of this assessment.
When someone dies (regardless of its bad character and misdeeds) people are required to become bountiful and kind; which explains statements like “[the king] was always candid and had the courage of his convictions” (Pres. Obama), "[the king will be reminded for his] commitment to peace and for strengthening understanding between faiths" (PM David Cameron) and "[the king's] grounded, considered and responsible leadership" (Pres. Reuven Rivlin) - protocol demands such level of hypocrisy. Nevertheless, what's wrong with the whole scenario (apart from the presence of the usual western lackeys who will not take advantage to break free, in these capital times)?
President Obama was in India, during the weekend, as per PM Modi's invitation to participate in the celebrations of India's Republic Day. India and the US are seeking a “five-fold increase in bilateral trade, to $500 billion, by 2020” (source), therefore it's easy to comprehend why President Obama couldn't possibly rush off to Saudi Arabia without addressing US' national interests first (therefore a phone call sufficed). Besides, now that America has found a more reliable partner to fight terrorism, and is energy-independent, it doesn't need to bow down to the Saudis any longer. In sum, the Saudi standing, as far as the US is concerned, has increasingly decreased. A new era is nascent.
Mohammad Javad Zarif was in Riyadh last Saturday: Saudi Arabia's main foe was present to pay his respects. It is safe to assume that Iran was also there to feel the air and study the new rival, King Salman.
From what it is said, the Saudi way of selecting royal successors is based not on strategy but rather on tradition, otherwise why would they – in this crucial political conjuncture – announce a king suffering from both Alzheimer's and dementia? Such a selection is strategically dangerous and may open various interesting opportunities to adversaries. Iran is counting on that and its presence should be understood as a warning: the Islamic Revolution is ready to take the wheel of the region (and if we take into account the pre-Coup carried out by the Houthis in Yemen...). Indeed, Saudi Arabia's standing is decreasing by the minute when the wolves come for dinner.
King Salman has asked the Allegiance Council to acknowledge Prince Muqrin as his heir – it's said that Muqrin (a fighter pilot by training, former governor of Medina and head of the intelligence) will be the de facto king due to King Salman's ailment, but since he's not loved by all of his relatives – due to his blood line – Saudi Arabia's opponents will scramble to sabotage him from within.
Palace intrigue will now start. Interesting times lie ahead...
(Source of Image: BBC)
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No palace intrigues Max. The cabal will use the new king as their rubber stamp to face the flak that will start now. Oil prices will continue to go South and that does not bode well for any of these people. Did you know that China and Russia, both large net importers of petroleum have negotiated large contracts with the USSR? SA which was dictating prices to both cannot do so anymore.
ReplyDeleteHi Rummy :D!
DeleteThe ingredients for a classical palace intrigue are all there: King that glued family together died; new King is sick, his heir is disliked by the others princes and he has a heterodox way of doing things (i.e. perhaps going against the tradition). Iran is ready manipulate any outcome, especially now that it managed to penetrate and control Yemen, through the Houthis.
You are right about oil, though.
USSR? You lost me...how do you mean?
"SA which was dictating prices to both cannot do so anymore"
Indeed; nevertheless, they are still trying to make it seem like they remain in control of the situation and that the low prices do not affect them...but it's not true, is it?
Rummy, thank you so much for your comment :D.
Cheers
My apologies. I belong to that generation to which Russia still means USSR. And SA should have been KSA. Sorry about that,
DeleteRummy, no need to apologise at all: I just needed to make sure that I was understanding you.
DeleteAh, yes...because they now call South Africa SA, right? So many acronyms...my goodness ;)
Thank you for clarifying me, my friend :D.
Cheers
It's not nice to talk bad of the dead but what we have heard this past weekend was shameful! But what were politicians supposed to do anyway, insult the man? He died, his successors will probably do the same and continue with the bullshit! I agree Iran will take advantage of the precarious situation and play her pawns, I'd do the same.
ReplyDeleteHi Anon :D!
DeleteOf course, it's not polite to insult a dead person; however, it's not equality polite to shower the dead person with compliments if the dead one didn't deserve them entirely...
True and it has already started, hasn't it?
Anon, thank you so much for your comment :D.
Cheers
Good for Obama not to give the Saudis the respect they thought they deserved! It's about time someone snubbed them!
ReplyDeleteCome on, for sure America knows these guys fund terrorism against us in the west, they have to know! So now we'll see a change in behavior, it's natural. Iran's presence was odd but it makes sense when we think of the coup in Yemen, let's call things by their names, it was a coup with the Iranian signature all over it! Now what does that mean for Israel? We need to think and act fast.
Hi Ana Raquel :D!
Deletelol Well, he did express his respects for the Saudis, after all they lost a leader; however, he did send the message of the decreasing level of importance of the kingdom, didn't he?
Yes, America knows it very well...
What does it mean for Israel, you ask? Look what happened this morning in the North border: Hezbollah attacked Israel...
Ana, thank you for your comment, darling :D.
Cheers
Max, our countries should sanction Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE for funding terror, radicalism and indoctrination but instead they just allow them to thrive in our land, buy everything they can get their hands on and control our politics all in the name of Global Islam! Then when shit happens what do they do? "These attacks have nothing to do with Islam", where are we heading to?
ReplyDeleteHi Carl :D!
DeleteI agree with you, the political response is not optimal. I understand that we do not want to sound threatening but we need to be assertive nevertheless. Enough with excuses...
Carl, thank you so much for your comment :D.
Cheers
From what I've been reading, Obama really pissed off not only the Saudis but the Pakistani too with this visit to India, but then countries are having a hard time getting that the world is changing. The US has made so many mistakes in the past that now is trying to make amends.
ReplyDeleteI agree the Saudis will go through deep challenges and Iran is paying attention without any doubt. Someone where said that if they were the Iranians they'd move the pawns in their favor: oh yeah, so would I! But let's see how all this will play out with the nuclear talks, will the US allow Iran to get closer to Israel? Cause Obama is using the Iranians to counter the Sunnis, right?
Hi Michael :D!
DeleteLong time no see, man: you were missed.
Well, the Pakistani need to take a chill pill (like a friend of mine says); did they really think that the status quo would be kept forever? The world is changing and they are falling behind.
I don't know whether the US is trying to make amends or not, but it is certainly changing its MO.
Ha, I think the US should play smart when it comes to Iran; but so far so good. To answer your question: I think so.
Mike, thank you so much for your comment :D. Don't be a stranger now.
Cheers
I think that's a very interesting and fair assessment of times to come. On a philosophical note, isn't it the law of nature or the axis of circle or as history has shown when kings were more prevalent that with the passage of time with new dispensations, new equations develop and the rusticated wolves come to the fore to the detriment of old friends.
ReplyDeleteAs you said rightly, with US becoming energy independent, interesting times lie ahead for the entire Islamic belt of nations. Perhaps the middle-east party would start slowing with falling crude prices and they become more realistic in running their feudal domains.
And in relation to India with the new dispensation and the silent background buzz around India's role in the recent Sri Lankan elections, and its continued support in relation to south china sea dispute, bonhomie with the Japanese and other neighbours, things would definitely get hotter in the Asia Pacific too.
Hi Kalyan :D!
DeleteThank you *bowing*. Yes, that's the law of nature indeed.
We have a lot of action to follow this year and in the coming years, without any doubt. At the same time it's exciting. :)
K, thank you so much for your comment :D.
Cheers
Xii, Iran has balls! I'm not commenting Obama's trip to Saudi Arabia cause it was as bad as that march in Paris. Didn't the new king fire everybody that was the previous king's son to put his own? It's a cut of dynasty, isn't it? I can imagine that the fire ones are fuming and will not let it rest but at the same time they will want to show the world that they understand and stay united but we all know...
ReplyDeleteHi Leila :D!
DeleteLOL it does. Yes, the new king has already dismissed all the late king's sons - which is a cut in King Abdullah's lineage, indeed.
You know how it works in Saudi Arabia: swallow your pride and display utter unity. It's like the old USSR, isn't it?
Leila, thank you so much for your comment :D.
Cheers