Assessing the Pause: A Look at Mosul

By Scott A Morgan

For the second time since the fall, the Iraqi Army and their Peshmerga Allies have seen fit to pause their Operation to liberate the city of Mosul. The question is how should people look at this?

From a tactical perspective we have been told this Operation would not be rushed by the various elements involved. It appears that there was a sense of urgency applied to this Battle as it was running concurrently to the Aleppo Campaign in Syria. The Campaign in Aleppo ended with a victory for the Syrian Government Forces. It remains to be seen whether there was there a race to have Mosul Liberated before Aleppo.

Another reason for the pause may be an overextension of the supply lines. This could also be a sign of moving too fast for what the planners anticipated for the duration of the campaign. From a logistical standpoint an extended supply line creates more security concerns for the party on offense. Various holes begin to open up the longer the supply line is and the fighting has probably increased the use of both food and ammunition by Forces in Combat.

But the pause could also shed some light into what has to be an underlying concern that has not been generally reported. That is the fractious relationship between the Iraqi Government, The Kurdish Forces and the Nineveh Plain Units - a.k.a the Christians.

There is a chance that these pauses could make the tensions that lay below the surface come to light sooner than it is currently being anticipated. It is felt that once the common adversary (ISIS) has been defeated then the previous, and traditional, enmities will once again rise to the forefront.

If this happens it appears that those that will be on the receiving end will be the Assyrians and other Religious Minorities. The tensions between these groups which were successfully curtailed under the Saddam Regime has been allowed for Political Gain by the successors to curry favor with regional powers. This means that regional politics may have regressed to levels not seen since the Ottoman Empire was at the height of its power.

A failure in Mosul will be the latest in a string of Foreign Policy Blunders that will plague the Obama Administration for eternity. Like most of the recent faux pas that were committed this will be seen as a self-inflicted wound by a Administration that sought not to lead but to be part of the group making the decisions. The number of those that have suffered at the poor decision making in Washington will still continue to grow….

(Image: Iraqi armed forces in Mosul Battle - Al Manar)

[The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dissecting Society]