Iran Sidelined by Russia: Interpreting the Smoke Signal

It has been reported that Iran is being set aside by Russia, and that the Iranian regime has already realised it. The word is that the US, Israel and Russia are coordinating their Syrian policies and the Ayatollahs are not part of the plan. Could this mean that finally America is ready, under the Trump Administration, to do what should have been done right upon the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)?

This discussion will be made under the assumption that neither the Iranians nor the Russians are playing the disinformation Game.

The Iranian Viewpoint

The Iranians say that "Iran's Role In The Arena Of The Syrian Developments Is Being Eliminated" so that Turkey can play a bigger part in it.

Is Iran being sidelined because of the missile tests it has been conducting, in violation of the JCPOA? Or have Russia and the US decided that Turkey, in spite of Erdogan's mistakes and crimes, is a much more valuable asset than the Iranians are (i.e. Russia needs Turkey on its side to pass its fleet through the Bosphorus and America needs to keep this NATO member under control)? Or it is perhaps something else?

Even though Iran is accusing Russia of dropping the Revolutionary ball, it is not sure of what Russia is playing at: did the Russians use, once more, the Iranians as an instrument to reach their goals (e.g. to press the US into lifting the sanctions against Putin's government; to show America that the Land of the Tsars is in a much more advantageous position to operate in the Middle East and that they can assist America in Countering Islamic Terrorism not only in the region but also around the world)? Or did they use Iranians to get valuable information that can easily be used as currency when negotiating with both the Americans and the Israelis (the two main Iranian foes), to reach Russian goals?

According to the media, Iran is not certain of anything but they are sure of one thing: they are not being invited to sit at the table, and as the Russians say “if you are not sitting at the table, you are being eaten at the table”.

The Russian Viewpoint

Russia has a clear interest in a rapprochement with the United States, and to that end the Kremlin's proxies have written that the present Russia–Iran relations can't necessarily be called a strategic partnership, but a cautious partnership (source). From Moscow's perspective, it seems the Russian-Iran association has failed to meet certain criteria and that having a common enemy doesn't guarantee a strategic partnership because a “one-time enemy could easily become an ally in the future” - no wonder the Iranians show signs of being nervous.

The same proxies indicated that Moscow does not see itself sharing the same religious, cultural, social and other “fundamental values” with Iran, in order to successfully establish strategic relations with it. By bringing these values up, Russia is basically suggesting that it shares them with America and that it is now ready to work closely with the Trump Administration – something the Obama Administration could only dream of.

Nota Bene: it is quite disturbing to see the American intelligence giving the impression that Russia has the all mighty power to hack their information system and even temper with their electoral results. Even if true, shouldn't the US Intel Community shut up about it? Why send signals of weakness to the world: are they trying to sabotage the Trump Administration or are they trying to allure someone? Or are they trying to maintain the divide between the two countries for self-interest? 

I reiterate that the world should welcome a healthy relationship between Russia and America, if indeed we want to reset world politics. Ideologues from both sides are endangering the world and they need to be dealt with. Now it's time for pragmatism for the common good, not ideology for the good of a few.

The American & Israeli Viewpoint

America spearheaded an agreement with Iran in 2015, however it remains very suspicious of Tehran – not without reason. Therefore, Washington has been involved in conversations with Russia and Israel to find a way of ostracising Iran from the Syrian civil war theatre:

• Russia wants to take advantage of the possible good relations it may have, in a near future, with President Trump, to see the famous diplomatic punitive measures lifted; and thus it assists the US in fighting ISIS and exerting pressure on pro-Iran forces, in the North and centre of Syria.
• Russia wants Israel to put a good word for it near President Donald Trump to the same end, and so it created a military protocol with the Jewish States in order to avoid clashes when Israel attacks pro-Iran forces in the South of Syria. 
• America and Russia recognised that Hezbollah is an “existential threat to Israel” and thus agree that Jerusalem has to hamper any weapon delivery to the Iranian proxy in Lebanon.
• The three have agreed that Iranian forces need to be kicked out of the Syrian theatre – have America and Russia also concurred to unleash the Blue Dragon? The reports that David's Sling is now operational, points to that direction.  
• How about Al-Assad? Russia compromised with the US-Israel duo but it should be inferred that the Eagle and the Lion of Zion have agreed in return that Russia's man is to remain in place until expedient conditions for his replacement are met. 

Conclusion

But what could this all mean exactly? It could mean that the Revolutionary regime in Tehran should worry about the smoke signals being sent: r-e-g-i-m-e-c-h-a-n-g-e. From Russia with Love - nothing personal, strictly business.

(This article was written in cooperation with Jonathan W. Penn)

[The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dissecting Society]