The Warsaw Conference: The New Middle East Alignment

By Max Coutinho

Last week, a Middle East Conference took place in Warsaw (Poland): according to PM Netanyahu “something amazing” happened there, the US was satisfied with the outcome, Iran was criticised for its bellicose stance and the Obama Administration was subtly criticised by Saudi Arabia. However, after all was said and done, what popped up was the new alignment of Middle East States: the Intelligent Arab States, the Status Quo Arab States and the Non-Intelligent Arab States. What’s the difference between the three camps? 

A Priori: the Intelligent Arab States

In this Camp we have countries like Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Yemen, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates. 

These countries are intelligent because they had the courage, at least in Poland, to be open to admit that old formulas haven’t worked, that they are stuck in the past, that their bad strategy for Israel allowed a common enemy to gain strength and try to take over the Middle East. We are yet to see if in the next Arab League Meeting these positions will stand (thus steering the MENA region in a new direction of peace and prosperity for all) or if they will yield to peer pressure and go back to old policies that only benefit their enemies and false friends (i.e. European countries). 

Indeed, this is an important, new vision for the future, (…) People in the Middle East have suffered a lot, because they have [been stuck in] the past. This is a new era for the future, and for prosperity for all the nations. – Yusuf bin Alawi bin Abdullah, the Omani Foreign Minister, in response to the Israeli PM Netanyahu

Who would’ve ever thought it possible to hear an Arab Leader speak in such terms, 28 years ago? Who would’ve thought that Arab States would ever open their eyes to the possibility of a new and powerful Middle East, 18 years ago? And we have Iran to thank for – without their lack of pragmatism and miscalculations the ME would risk stagnating forever. 

The Status Quo Arab States

In this Camp we have Jordan, Egypt, Kuwait and Tunisia. 

These countries are slaves of obsolete measures because they keep clinging to old formulas, they are not giving signs of embracing change in MENA and are stuck in the past; however, they can’t be considered non-intelligent because at least they had the fortitude to attend the meeting even though with a narrow mind: this is the Status Quo camp. 

These states went to Warsaw to say the usual things: we defend the two-state solution with East Jerusalem as the capital of Palestine; we support the two-state solution within the pre-1967 borders and a Palestinian capital in eastern Jerusalem - even though that ship has sailed a year ago. Notwithstanding, this apparent cognitive dissonance has an explanation:

• Jordan: if this Kingdom doesn’t support the defunct Palestinian Cause in public, the Palestinian faction of the Muslim Brotherhood will do everything it can to depose the Hashemite Royal Family (recall the 1970 civil war between Jordan and the PLO).
• Egypt: the creator of the Palestinian Question (Nasser created this fake identity in 1964 as an attrition weapon against Israel). If Cairo doesn’t support the dead Palestinian Cause, the Muslim Brotherhood (which is regrouping and preparing a major event in a near future) may wreak havoc and disrupt any attempt to stabilise the country. 
• Kuwait: if this kingdom doesn’t pretend to support the fake Palestinian cause it will suffer threats from two countries – Iran and Iraq (two extremely radical states when it comes to Israel). 
• Tunisia: if this country doesn’t support the Palestinian corpse it will have problems with their Algerian radical neighbours and AQIM folks. 

So, it’s complicated. However, I have another suggestion: why don’t these countries flip the needles and instead of spending resources in supporting the PLO, an organisation that largely contributes to their threat, why not invest on eliminating the Muslim Brotherhood for good? If they give us a complete list of the PLO networks in their countries, we will have access to the MB network, if we have these networks, then we will have a clearer picture of their connections to Al-Qaeda rings and eventually up to Hezbollah/Iran (and its European and African partners). 

Obsessing over Israel has brought these countries nothing but more strife as it only emboldened the radical Islamist groups that menace them. 

The Non-Intelligent Arab States

In this Camp we have Lebanon, Syria and Morocco. Lebanon boycotted the Warsaw Conference, Morocco played Humpty Dumpty (read here) and Syria wasn’t invited but we know where its heart was at (i.e. at the parallel Turkish, Iranian and Russian summit). 

Lebanon and Morocco are not intelligent because they are Euro-lackeys, who mask their submission to Europe with their “national interests” and “dissociation policies” that in the long run won’t let them maximise their potential.

What do Lebanon, Syria and Morocco have in common however? They were French colonies. France, as we have previously discussed, is the most antagonistic European country towards Israel (due to a policy called “French Arab Policy” – that will be the French demise) and, therefore, it is not a coincidence that countries over which France still exerts a strong influence will lack the intelligence to see that they are playing into the hands of Europeans who couldn’t care less about the welfare and future of the Arab and North African People. 

Important Q&A

• Which country occupied Lebanon, in 1976, with the excuse of controlling the expansion of Palestinian guerrilla presence in the territory? Syria (with French tacit agreement)
• Which European Country helped Khomeini to prepare the Islamic Revolution to depose the Shah (an ally of the US and Israel [to some extent]) in 1979? France. 
• How was Hezbollah conceived? It broke away from the Amal Movement, founded by Musa al-Sadr an Iranian-Lebanese cleric with Iran’s blessing and agenda. 
• Where was Hezbollah born in early 1980’s with Iran’s help? In Lebanon. 
• Where does Hezbollah have more freedom of action in Europe? France.

The French fingerprint is all over it. And to think the mantra has been that the Arab-Israeli conflict is the main obstacle to peace in the Middle East. Nay, France’s and Iran’s political agenda is the main hurdle to peace in the Middle East; and the main ME powers are to address this problem in an intelligent way.  

Conclusion

The Middle East is changing fast. However, which countries will grow and have a beautiful future and which ones will be left behind? The answer is not difficult: the intelligent Arab States normalising their ties with Israel will move forward and form a Powerful Bloc (that most certainly will surpass Europe). The Status Quo Arab States will eventually have to pick a side and either progress or digress. And the Non-Intelligent Arab States will continue to cater to European countries instead of tendering to their own people and, thus, to their national interests – in other words, they will fall. 

How about the Palestinian Cause? It has served its purpose, a lot of people have made a lot of money from it, and now it will gradually wither away. Maktub.

(Image: Conference Logo[cropped from original] via Google Images)

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