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Posted by
Max Coutinho
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Looking at present events around the world, there is little doubt that we will not be able to escape a Third World War. We should now try to anticipate the future players in that war and make the necessary moves to generate acceptable outcomes.
Since adversity makes strange bedfellows (ex: Pakistan and Israel participated in military exercises, last August, in America, a priori due to the threat of Iran [Pakistan vowed to protect Saudi Arabia]), we need to briefly anticipate a couple of scenarios with different players so we can have an idea of what is coming our way, and prepare.
Scenario A: America, Israel and the UK vs Iran, China and Russia
ISIS is already stepping up its warfare, in Dabiq, in order to speed up the coming of the Mahdi; however, Iran must be chuckling at the group since it believes it knows best what will speed up that process. The Ayatollahs believe that a serious bloodshed must be caused in order to bring the Mahdi back, and, since sponsoring terrorism hasn't quite done the trick within this context, the only way to do that is to make use of its nuclear programme. This programme is indirectly sponsored by China – a country that does very little to control North Korea (Iran's nuclear Lab), which makes us wonder what profit the Red Dragon may be getting from all this. If North Korea is Iran's Lab, then Iran may be China's tester – the Persians get the bad PR, the world's attention, and China gets to test the nuclear technology it commissioned from its favourite Axis (Pakistan, North Korea and Iran) with a pristine image.
So, where does Russia fit in this scenario? Russia may feel like progressing from a neo-cold war scenario to a hot war against the West. In that case, it would be natural for the Russians to support the Iranian enterprise, since the US would naturally side with Israel and the UK in defence of its interests in the Middle East.
Scenario B: America, Israel and Russia vs Iran, Germany and China
Germany, as it seems, has been cosying up to Iran due to its sizable business interests in the Islamic Republic. It was reported that Germany's Foreign Minister, Guido Westerwelle, met with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Iran – in what was considered an image booster for the Iranian regime; it was also reported that Germany absolutely refuses to shut the European-Iranian Trade Bank (EIH); that it has recently supported an Anti-Israel resolution at the UNSC; and (rumour has it) that Angela Merkel even got snappy at PM Netanyahu. Therefore, a priori, it is fair to take into consideration the possibility that Germany may side with Iran in a future war, if doing so serves its interests of renewed domination of Europe.
As one of Iran's few remaining access points to the European financial system, EIH has facilitated a tremendous volume of transactions for Iranian banks previously [blacklisted] for proliferation. - US State Department
If Germany would back Iran up (and in the process convince certain European countries to join it), then Russia could re-position itself and side with America and Israel in the Battle of Battles – even though Russia and the US did try to work together in Syria, albeit unsuccessfully. Russia and Israel maintain an agreeable relationship and perhaps the Jewish State could mediate a productive working environment between Washington and Moscow, so that both could serve her interests.
Scenario C: America, Israel and Turkey vs Russia, Iran and China
As bad as the Turkish regime may be, and we believe it is, now is not the time to play emotional. All decisions made must be pragmatic. When reports say Russia is deploying S300 and S400 missile defence gadgets in Syria, the most immediate thought is “this is a show of support for the Assad regime, therefore a support for the Iranian interests in the region”. By supporting the Iranian thirst for regional power, Russia pushes America to keep putting up with Erdogan's insolence in order to keep its nuclear weapons in Turkish territory as a deterrent, in case ISIS takes over Syria or in case Iran gets frisky regarding US interests in the region. Turkey and Israel are in the middle of a rapprochement, in part thanks to Barack Obama (who acted to protect US interests by keeping two of its most important chess pieces on friendly terms to assure neither of them would hinder future American moves in the ME).
The US and Turkey are NATO members, Israel has opened this year a diplomatic mission in its HQ in Brussels; and since Russia is anti-NATO, it would be normal to see Putin siding with its client Iran, in order to keep selling those weapons not only to the Ayatollahs but to all Iran's friends. Of course, Russia would not be as bold as to openly fight side-by-side with Iran against America and Israel, but it would probably continue to support al-Assad if he manages to remain in power – if not, Russia might find some other Iranian satellite to grant its support to.
Scenario D: Israel, Saudi Arabia & Cº vs Iran, China and Qatar
The US may decide to not even directly participate in the Battle of Battles. It may instead decide to sit this one out and simply provide logistical support to its allies. By doing so, Russia may also decide to follow suit; thus taking the world back to a time when both countries engaged in proxy wars. So that leaves us with Israel, Saudi Arabia and Cº versus Iran, China and Qatar.
It's a known fact that Saudi Arabia and other Arabic nations have been getting closer to Israel, in spite of the die hard public rhetoric – that nevertheless will die out over time; due to a common foe: Iran. The Revolutionary Regime is a danger not only to the Jewish State but also to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States, and obeying to the old proverb “the enemy of my enemy my friend is” they have been working together in order to fight the Persian evil.
Because Saudi Arabia is leading the Arab rapprochement, of course, Qatar is very much opposing it (as per Sheikh al-Thani's UNGA speech). Therefore, as an act of despair, Qatar may very well join forces with Iran – albeit indirectly – just to spite the Saudi Kingdom and continue to seek the destruction of Israel (through his perceived old and new proxies – the Palestinian terrorists and now Iran). As for China: we have already established the relationship between Iran and the Red Dragon; however, it must be said that it remains to be seen whether China will support Iran based on commercial-nuclear relations or based on good old political Power and influence in the region. The Red Dragon has been developing its own weapons industry and may thus want to replace Russia as the main weapon supplier of the Northern Middle East, while maintaining its fluid access to fossil fuel (even though that's not the future of fuel). Furthermore, replacing Russia as one of the world powers has been a very old dream of China's.
“And you shall come up against My people Israel, as a cloud to cover the land; it shall be in the end of days, and I will bring you against My land, that the nations may know Me, when I shall be sanctified through you, O Gog, before their eyes.” (Ezekiel 38:16)
[The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dissecting Society]
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Brilliant! There is another player that will increasingly make its presence felt in the future, India.
ReplyDeleteRummuser, I agree that India is about to become a huge player, but do you think that India would participate in a war in the Middle East, given her interests there? Everything so far points at neutrality, unfortunately in my opinion.
DeleteThere are other ways to get involved than participating directly in wars.
DeleteHi Rummy :D!
DeleteThank you *bowing*. That's what I have been hoping for...
My friend, thank you so much for your comment :D.
Cheers
Rummuser, true. I can think of a way of getting involved but eventually even that way may push India towards war - keeping Pakistan in check. The day India gets serious with Pakistan, half of the world's troubles will be solved.
DeleteCristina, India is serious about Pakistan but wants to avoid a full fledged war. Nothing wrong about that but I agree with you she won't be able to postpone a confrontation forever. Kashmir's situation will have to solved eventually but maybe, just maybe, that solution is linked to Israel's West Bank status?
DeleteGermany has a very ambiguous policy in the ME. Not sure she'd stand by Israel and America cause I suspect she'd use the war in the region to take over Europe again. Superb post!
ReplyDeleteHi Anonymous :D!
DeleteMany of us suspect that. Thank you *bowing*.
Anon, thank you so much for your comment :D.
Cheers
I remember you once wrote we needed a reset. Back then I agree and guess what? I still do.
ReplyDeleteHi Jake :D!
DeleteYes, indeed. I suspect hard times are coming, my friend.
Jake, thanks for your comment :D.
Cheers