An Expansionist Algeria?

By Scott Morgan

The Security Situation in the Sahel has the potential to undertake another interesting twist.  This action is a result of a North African Country holding a Constitutional Referendum. 

This Referendum took place on November 1st in Algeria. After decades of one party rule it was determined that the Constitution needed to be amended.  The issue that raises security concerns for the Sahel were the amending of Articles 28 and 29. 

• The Amendment of Article 28 allows for the Algerian Military to undertake crossborder operations if there is two-thirds approval of the Parliament. 
• Article 29 will allow for these operations to be conducted under the supervision of the Arab League.  Those safeguards will keep the President from making a unilateral decision to intervene in a crisis. 

There are a couple of interesting backstories regarding why the Algerian Military is being given these new missions pertaining to the region.

On three separate occasions between October 2019 and May 2020 Algerian Security Forces found weapons caches near the border with Mali.  Since 2012, Mali has suffered from Insurgencies, Foreign Interventions, and two Coups. The Algerians did broker a peace accord between the Government in Bamako and at least two of the insurgent groups. However, the instablilty has been allowed to fester to this point of time. This is one concern that most analysts will have in mind. 

Another concern is the chaos that still continues in Libya. When Turkey decided to intervene in support of the Government of National Accord (GNA) earlier this year, President Erdogan went to Algiers to personally lobby newly elected President Tebboune to send troops to Libya and support the Turkish effort to end the conflict. Most analysts have determined that the situation in Libya may be the catalyst for amending Articles 28 and 29 of the Algerian Constitution.  The question now becomes will an Algerian Intervention bring the parties closer to the table? 

There is also an insurgency in Burkina Faso. Within the next two weeks that Country will head to the polls to elect both a President and a National Assembly. This country has often been under the radar of most analysts as a potential intervention site. 

There have been some calls for Algeria to stand up and do more regarding the Security Situation in both the Maghreb and in the Sahel. The voters in Algeria have heard this message and tend to approve it with some stipulations regarding the deployment of the Military.

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