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By Scott A Morgan
There is a situation developing along the Atlantic Coast of Africa near the Equator that could lapse into a crisis that affects more than one nation. This situation could also affect Oil Commodities.
Over the last few weeks unidentified fighters began appearing in the Cabinda Region of Angola. This is the main Oil Producing region of Angola and fosters Economic Growth for the Rest of the Country. It also has its own Independence Movement. It should be noted that the Facebook page of FLEC (Front for the Liberation of the Enclave of Cabinda) actually posted this item.
What factors are in play here? Cabinda itself is surrounded by both of the Congos (Brazzaville and the DRC) so it’s no stretch of the imagination to suspect that these forces are Congolese in nature. Brazzaville just extended the term of office of President Soussou and by November 30th, 2016 Elections are mandated to take place within the DRC. So that explains that possibility.
Another interesting possibility is Gabon. Word of this event is a very popular topic of conversation amongst the Opposition. In 2016 Gabon is scheduled to have a Presidential Election and there is concern regarding the Birth Certificate of the President. It has been alleged that the Document itself is a fraud and the President may be an Orphan from Nigeria. Could this be a base of the Gabonese Opposition to launch a movement if there is fraud during this plebiscite?
A very cynical view is that this could be an effort to drive up Oil Prices. For the last week Oil has been hovering around the $38 price per barrel. The decline in price has seriously affected the Economy of Angola. There have been several successful discoveries off the coast of Congo-Brazzaville. Something that could interrupt the Supply Chain, in an effort to drive up the price, will most likely occur sometime in the near future. A Wild Card theory will suggest that this could be an effort by either the Saudis or Russia in an effort to replenish their coffers.
Could this interruption lead to an intervention by a third party? It’s possible especially if there is an Economic Interest involved. Most suspicion will fall upon the Western Democracies in the name of Stopping Terror against an aggrieved party. Another scenario could involve the free flow of Oil or other form of Trade.
This is worth watching.
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And once again Saudi Arabia comes up. This blog has already raised this possibility in a previous piece, I think: the interference of Middle East oil producers meddling in African affairs to protect their economic interests. I know little of Cabinda and the African dynamics but this article makes sense. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteHi Morgan,
ReplyDeleteShould Cabinda have its independence? I think so. The Cabinda issue is just another example of western territorial meddling that just didn't work. As for Angola, we don't pay enough attention to it, that's certain; and we must as it's turning out to be a major player in the region.
This is a fabulous piece that makes us think hard about the dealings in Africa and the involvement of Saudi Arabia and Russia in the continent too; so...good job.
Cheers