If Mexico Turns Left, What Can We Expect From it?

By Scott Morgan

Even though border security has become a partisan issue here, in the United States, it cannot be denied that those living in the Southwest are ignorant of concerns. To contrast those in Mexico are not paying a close attention to the actions of President Trump as some people in the US are.

The current election cycle in Mexico has not been this bloody since the 1970s - when chaos reigned supreme. Since last fall, at least 130 candidates and politicians have been killed. The month of May 2018 was extremely bloody. Taken into context the current homicide rate will exceed the record of 29,168 just set last year. It is expected that on the current rate it is possible that over 30,000 people will be killed in the country this year. In one instance a local police force murdered a mayoral candidate of a town and got into a firefight with the State Police when they went to take into custody for that event.

So what is at stake? Why has there been such vitriol during this campaign? The current ruling party, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), has ruled the country for 77 out of the last 90 years and it has fallen out of favor with the electorate. The current favorite to win the polls is Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.

Señor Obrador is a populist from the left leaning parties. He hopes to deal with the rampant corruption that plagues the country. Reports also indicate that He is considering a General Amnesty for members of the Drug Cartels as well. Since they operate in the shadows how much of an impact could this actually have?

It appears that the only person who has a chance of defeating Lopez Obrador during the July 1st polls is Ricardo Anaya - of the National Action Party which has joined with two smaller center-left parties to launch this campaign. He has accused Lopez Obrador of using outdated ideas for his campaign and has launched attacks against the ruling PRI as well.

Mr. Anaya has stated that his campaign was the only true break from the current political establishment that has left so many Mexicans frustrated with the current political process.

As with any controversial election or crisis there is always a sliver of optimism that is often overlooked by pundits and other casual observers. In Mexico, there is great interest among the youth during this current electoral cycle. It is estimated that almost half of the registered voters in the country are under the age of 39. Of that number it is believed that 14 Million will be casting ballots for the very first time. Pundits have always promoted the youth vote in various elections worldwide.

One issue that all candidates seem to agree on is that Corruption is rampant in the country. Another problem that is not separate from the Corruption issue is that the Security Forces needs some form of reform. This will come to the chagrin to Human Rights Activists.

In fact, most of the cartels are comprised of former member of the Security Forces. At least one cartel was formed by Special Forces Units that were trained by the United States at one point. The cartels have their own control of prosecutors, police and other aspects of Government.

Another security risk is the very sluggish Mexican Economy. The economy which is growing at a rate of 2% annually has suffered from sluggish Oil Prices. Tourism which has been another key factor could take a hit due to the murder rate and kidnappings. 40% of the population currently lives in poverty. That creates a underclass who feel that they are left behind.

It is widely expected that Mexico will have a left wing Government after the Elections on July 1st. 

What happens after the change is the great unknown quantity in politics.

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